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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

  • einhorn_owns_blanford einhorn_owns_blanford Jun 19, 2012 7:52 PM Flag

    You longs should pay more for what I am about to tell you.


    Consider this a gift to my fellow man. I am going to explain to you why I make money going short and why you mostly lose money.

    First, I have a plan when I short. If I made a mistake along the way, I cover and move on. You longs are in for the ride. When this stock was at 115 you say it's going to 200. When it goes to 85 you say time to buy more. When it goes to 40 you say buy more... When it goes to 20 you say buy more, it's an opportunity of a lifetime. Unlike shorts, you can't admit your mistakes. I shorted at 54 and will cover 1/2 at 15 and the other half at 8 or 9. Now, while you always make excuses to buy more or blame shorts or blame market manipulation here's what would make me run for cover.

    Insiders start buying.....large uptick in volume with a price spike...SEC ends investigation with no offers positive guidance. For the record, I don't see any of this happening.

    What you have failed to see is the fundamentals of this company have severely changed. The former cash cow K-Cups are not selling like before and will have a negative effect on revenue and P/E. None of you longs will even entertain that thought. You have all convinced yourselves that you have a great company that will head back to the moon.

    Guess what, this company does have great product however, they have some problems they are not likely to overcome and as long as insiders are allowed to give themselves stock options that they immediately turn around and sell you are going to lose. Instead of blaming shorts maybe you should start blaming the people who through their greed and manipulation got you into this mess.

    Now, I know many of you longs won't pay a bit of attention and continue along trying to convince yourselves everything is going to be fine but consider this. Shorts make money thanks to unrealistic people like you who refuse to hold management accountable and can't recognize when it's time to get out. I told you when I will get out. Many of you will ride this down to zero and then blame the whole world for your loss. Do you think GMCR insiders who have cashed out Millions really care about you and your investment? If you do, you deserve exactly what you get.

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    • You said "longs won't pay a bit of attention". I'm long, but I read all the posts; sell oriented as well as buy oriented posts. If the poster is giving factual type of advice vs. wild emotional outbursts, I will listen to what he is saying. I do read your posts.

    • i may lose for now but there will be a day that comes where this will finally bottom out and when it does i will be there ready to collect so let it got to 10,5,2,1,end the end i will ready to pounce hard n collect n then everyone at CNBC cramer n all of them be saying buy prolly after a buyout by Kraft foods or Coke or maybe in mickeyD's mcdonalds all 3 of them companies have the money to buy GMCR out anytime

    • but i say this for this morning it looks like it may drop to 17 n then pop to 18 but thats just my opinion we are bout to see in about an hour from now

      • 1 Reply to vertical.limit24
      • what concerns me is that all the retards on this board expect a pop. and you know as well as I know when that happens, the stocks tank.

        That is, expectations by the little guys always see wrong. For example, most of these posters were involved with Riverbed Technology when it fell to mid 20's and they bragged that it was going to pop. But then, Riverbed Technology dropped to $14.

        Before last week's earning with Riverbed, you can look at the postings the two week before earnings, there was NO PUMPERS at all, it was like dessert. But then, the earnings were good and the company popped up $4 dollars. Again, the little guys pumped in the 25 range thought they were right but when it was low no one said a thing.

        The scary thing is right now, we still have dozens of pumpers.

    • my gut feeling tells me this is going lower and GMCR will miss earnings simply because they over priced earnings for the summer months my opinion it should be more like 45cents instead of 50cents but everytime i get out of a stock it seems to always go up and if i stay in it seems to continue going down even more so i guess am rolling the dice for all the marbles till next tuesday maybe even wednesday the earnings don't come out till after the bell rings on wednesday

    • let stop all the bs for a minute lets think about this if this goes to 0 how much money will be lost and if it goes up how much money will be made

    • Eihorn is down 3% for the year. Doesn't sound like you're making any money at all.

    • If you have been short since 54, why did you just start posting since June? Why do you even care to post here since clearly the people who post here do not really have any clue in the company from their comments are so inaccurate.

      • 1 Reply to john_lee_20032003
      • John Lee, Good questions. I did short at 54 and I shorted a larger position again at 44. I wish I would have continued to short more on the way down and many times I nearly pulled the trigger but I have a rather large position and did not have the nerve to short more. I will therefore likely cover at different intervals. My 54 gets covered at 15 and my 44 at 8. And as always, my target prices are subject to change depending upon certain events and how they are unfold.

        The reason I only started to post in June is simple. It's for the same reason I prefer the last few innings of a baseball game or when my football team gets into the red zone. This is when it gets to be interesting. In addition, I do believe I made some post much prior to June but like many others, used a different I.D.

        At 54 or 44 it's seemed a long time away to hit my target price but once we broke through 30 I could smell victory.

        Good Luck!


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