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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

  • einhorn_owns_blanford einhorn_owns_blanford Jul 20, 2012 11:26 AM Flag

    "Yeah, Keurig is on the way out"-- David Einhorn's recent comments

     

    Looks like Einhorn is still short and looking to ride this to zero.

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    • Thanks, let me rephrase the concern about "accounting fraud". I am not saying that there certainly is a meaningful accounting fraud. However, when I make an investment in a company I like to understand the potential downside. I like a margin of safety.

      With regard to GMCR I think it is prudent to consider the impact on the stock if there is a meaningful accounting fraud. Lots of very smart people (not just high profile short sellers) and formulaic analysis think there is a meaningful probability of accounting fraud in GMCR. So I want to figure out how bad it could be. For some companies a major accounting fraud could result in bankruptcy due to their business model and financial structure (think WorldCom, Enron, etc.). I think GMCR would probably survive even a pretty major accounting fraud, but I want to make a quantitative estimate of impact.

    • SEC is well known for doing poor jobs.

    • einhorn_owns_blanford einhorn_owns_blanford Jul 22, 2012 12:41 PM Flag

      THIS INQUIRY IS ONLY THE FIRST STEP!!!
      "Investigations" often begin with inquiry's.

      Do you really think after two years and the SEC is still asking questions that they believe NOTHING was done wrong? They would have ended this inquiry many months ago if that was the case.



      >>>The inquiry has been going on for a quite a while, but nothing has been come of it.<<<

    • thermo..so many speak of the SEC inquiry as "accounting fraud". I recognize there has been an on-going inquiry, not investigation. In fact, I called the SEC and asked about it to clarify that. The inquiry has been going on for a quite a while, but nothing has been come of it. At this time, I think people/shorts are contriving this to be fraud in order to panic investors. I doubt the SEC inquiry will result in any conclusion of accounting irregularities or any material impact on the financials, if any at all. I don't have any other basis to place my conclusion other than my own past experience as a CPA, recognizing the diligence PwC is employing in their assignment, and the fact no findings have been made to date. I suspect the SEC is tremendously understaffed and does not have this as a high and continued priority. If I am correct about contriving stories by the shorts, that is a real crime! Good luck.

 
GMCR
98.13+0.74(+0.76%)Apr 16 4:00 PMEDT

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