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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

  • mani_v_bea mani_v_bea Jul 24, 2012 4:32 PM Flag

    As predicted -Einhorn Lost in Appl now..

    he he he.

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    • Thoughtful,

      Do you have any thoughts on the SEC development? I would have thought there would have been some resolution before now.

      It really does amaze me that Blanford did not stick up for the investors but I'm sure that will all play out as well. I think before they can move forward with the company they need ago address past questions that were asked of them in detail, and I'm not talking the superficial answers that they initially gave.

      If they don't address I find it highly unlikely that Wall street ever gains trust, as well as investors. I hope some day this letter that is suppose to come from the SEC arrives and puts some these allegations to rest, at this point all we have to go on is the assumption that GMCR is innocent until proven guilty.

      Common

    • Brocade you asked a good and civil question.

      Here is my answer. GMCR is NOT the company it was last yr and the prior years.

      I totally belive in the K-Cup concept and love my K-cups in the AM ( Dunkin Bold). However the huge yr over yr growth is gone, Ans with that have gone thr MOMO hedgies who moved this stock to levels that although over the top I was very happy to benefit from.

      The huge growth is gone. That is apparent. Although there is still very nice growth it clearly isn't what it used to be,

      One of my main issues with the company is the failure of mgt. In the past I applauded MGT as they appeared to be making every right move.
      However since Einhorn appeared they have clearly lost their moxie. The Stiller margin call was a total disgrace. For the founder and largest indiviual shareholder to have used so much stock as collateral is unheard of. Blanford is beyond a lightweigth, he is a joke. When confronted by normal questions about inventories etc he was completely flustered. In addition Blanford has avoided even answering the many allegations made against the company. Some would say that when there is an ongoing investigation , one must not answer. Well when a stock goes from over 100 to 18 its time to fight back. If you have nothing to hide act like a leader and speak up for the shareholders who pay your salary.

      Allegations of insider sales and most importantly cooking the books by shipping to your distributor should be addressed. I have no problem with the way GMCR books revenue when selling to MBlock but apparently others in the enforcement area do.

      If GMCR would ever clean up their act they still have an excellent product. But for me due to the fact that i have NO TRUST in mgt and there are serious clouds hanging over this company I am on the sidelines.

      I always thought the best thing I have ever done in investing was buying shares in 2008 and riging the stock up thru two spilts. But now it is clear to me that the best investment choice I ever made was selling my shares.

      I have many friends on this bd and GMCRPROBOARDS who I literally go back years with and I only wish them well.
      I have for years thought that GMCR would be taken over by a major multi national company. But until the actual revenue and earnings situations are cleared up it would be doubtful for anyone to but this company.

      If the naysayers are right there could be serious jailtime for some in management.
      But as Shakespeare said "There;s something rotten in Denmark)

      Good question Brocade but things change and choices are mAde.

      Good luck my friend

    • Actually, when I see long time MOMO players like TF on the sidelines and afraid to be long, I know it is time for me to buy.

      I don't take my cues from posts on message boards. I do fundamental and strategic analysis. Few stocks have upside in the current market environment. This one does. An acquirer with lots of cash on the balance sheet could leverage this in a huge way right now.

      Anyway, I'm mainly short the market. Long in very few and select instances (although I have my eyes on a few more...). This is a small position for me, but it is as much out of principle as it is to make money...

    • Good luck shorts!

    • "afraid to be long?" Are yous serious about this with GMCR? Almost everyone on this board is a wild long and buying on margin at this price. Look at this posts as EVEERYONE is expecting this to jump to $26 after earnings on August 1st. Doesn't that concern you at all1?

    • I've been short consumer discretionary / retail (CMG, LULU, GMCR, NFLX, AMZN, BWLD, about to add Panera) and long tech (Google, Apple, NSPH) for a year. It was painful for the past 11 months as the capitulations squeezes weeded out most shorts. Now, I'm at all time highs in a still target rich environment.

      Everyone is getting bearish and I am scaling into beaten down stocks...

      I encourage everyone to look at balance sheets and cash flow yield and cost structure to make investment decisions moving forward. I expect those metrics to improve here going forward (not necessarily this quarter, but over the next few years it will reaccelerate).

    • Tech,

      Maybe you are right that AAPL will not lose a significant market cap that soon. With 117 billion in cash, it would be hard for me to argue there now. Though i wonder how much is held here compared to overseas. APPL, considered as a growth stock has always traded in the value stock range. Wonder if it will fall below now.

      I am certainly bearish on AMZN and CRM, and for once i would be on the same side as Einhorn. There are many value plays in tech which could easily yield 10% in 2-3 quarters HPQ,DOX,ORCL

    • Mani:

      You are right in part. But, Apple will not, long term, lose as much value as you think. Its valuation when viewed from a cash flow yield perspective is extraordinarily low.

      What you should be thinking about is who wins (at least in the relative sense) in the situation you are describing...

      The best company in the bunch is not Apple and is certainly not Amanzon.

    • The markets have long since ceased to be about investing and to make sense. In fact, most of the traders are always "front running" the move so that what actually happens on news makes no sense.

      In the near term, stocks are valued purely on how they trade. Wall Street analysts live in fear of the machines, so they no longer actually add value through truly fundamental economic analysis. Herding dominates and stock price movements are reinforcing... until they aren't.

      This was a momentum stock that everyone was scared to short and then it became a negative momentum stock that everyone is afraid to be long.

      I don't play that way. I make decisions clinically based upon what I believe to be the risk/return of the underlying economics.

      Time will tell...

    • If you understand the shorting situation. Can you explain why when the stock was at the stratospheric $100 range, the percentage short was in the 5% range but now the stock is down to $17, there is 20% or so short?

      This doesn't seem to be logical....

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