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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

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  • toonawish toonawish Oct 16, 2012 12:14 PM Flag

    Day Traders Disappear From GMCR Forum

    If it goes to the $40's after the Feb earnings report; I'll probably sell (depends on the earnings report.)

    If the report looks really good (refuting the naysayers) I'll sell a few covered calls & hold a smaller position for another quarter to hopefully see a potential expansion in the PE with more confidence in management.

    To answer your question more clearly; I have a 1 to 2 year horizon on this.
    It was a growth story with a fanatical following before & I don't expect the huge multiples of years past.

    To put these remarks in perspective; I have a 10 year horizon on company's like AFL, MET, ADM, SJM, VALE, TEVA & don't lose any sleep holding them for retirement.

    The sleep loss factor on GMCR is too high for a retirement portfolio.
    I'll be plowing the capital gains from a GMCR sale into the aforementioned lullaby stocks & replaying the cost basis portion of a GMCR sale into whatever downtrodden contrarian play happens to rear its controversial head at that time.

    I believe slower/high growth will continue thanks to strong licensing agreements but the introduction of competition with patent expiries simply doesn't lend itself to 10 more years of sustained high growth.

    SJM on the other hand; is a MUCH better coffee play for the long term (40& of sales are Java) & I'm dollar cost averaging into that issue with a 10 year horizon...

    Sentiment: Buy

 
GMCR
113.20-0.34(-0.30%)Mar 27 4:00 PMEDT