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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Dec 4, 2012 2:36 PM Flag

    Today is settlement day for the margin calls resulting from last week's conference call

    We expect the stock to crest today... and drop off a bit tomorrow.

    As for the guy getting his short shares "confiscated", I suspect his account dropped to less than 30% equity and having not been recapitalized with an equity injection, they simply closed out his position. We should see a bunch of that into the close today, but anyone trying to trade that impact should realize the pro money is set on that.

    Good luck to those playing without the knowledge and tools needed to be better than lucky.

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    • Squeeze, I very much appreciate all your insightful comments on this board. Having been in/out of GMCR at various levels since early 2007, I have seen a lot of nonsense here, and have learned to appreciate substantive analysis such as yours.

      One thing I wonder about is the huge open interest of December 2012 calls. I theorize that a lot of those contracts are hedging short positions. If so, I expect a lot of shorts will close out both sides of the trade before the 12-21-2012 expiration. Is this your expectation also, or do you think they will just roll their calls forward and hold their short positions?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • You are correct ST. My point was I never got a margin call for additional funds.

      • 1 Reply to nukemw
      • if you have maintained your account responsibly, they should have called... but it is your responsibility to stay current -- if you have an on-line account, I am virtually certain they have sent you notices on this -- check the email section. If your acount is small (say less than $20k equity), they likely don't care if you close the account.

        If you have an account rep set up, i'd ask for a new rep on my account, just because they did not call. Again, maintaining sufficient equity is on you, though... not them. They saw you let the account run for several days and said "he didn't fix it -- close him out."

        If they closed you out earlier today (which i think you said they did), they likely saved you at least $1/share... if you watched the tape into the last hour, the pros ran it up to further squeeze lots of little retail acoounts knowing the margin depts would be covering in unfunded shortfalls today after 2:30 or so (as i had suggested would happen). This is not rocket science.

    • Why is today the only settlement day for shorts? Wouldn't the price increase from today result to more forced covering due to margin calls tomorrow, and so on ?

      Sentiment: Buy

    • squeezetracker:if one day the whole market falls on fiscal cliff news;( I.E. the Dow drops 500 points),will this be the final chance for the shorts to close their positions en mass without the stock rising? (buying into the overall selloff), and if so, would that signal a short term ceiling for GMCR stock?

      • 1 Reply to southbuckeye
      • if the broad market drops, there is no assurance that "all" stocks would drop, including this one. As for the shorts closing out their positions en masse? I suspect most pros closed out any net shorts (and related offsets) they put on below $35 within a day or two of the conference call. Remember that many have likely re-established positions at the higher levels seen today... and do keep in mind that guys like einhorn were likely shorting from $80 up to $115 and more once it started to collapse less than a year ago.

        My point is that most pros are likely closed out already or shorted at levels they are still comfy sitting or otherwise hedged to where they are not concerned about the $10 move seen since the earnings call.

        We've sold more puts this week (not in size, more at playing) and remain very comfy with the f18m outlook. My best advice to friends and relatives is to close out easy gains this year, especially any LTCG.

        Good luck to all longs here.

    • Are you out of your long position?

120.68-0.32(-0.26%)Jul 25 3:59 PMEDT

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