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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

  • southbuckeye southbuckeye Dec 6, 2012 2:53 PM Flag

    37's are here again now

    Something going on.

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    • and how to play all that?


      How about that -- I think it didn't go to $50 first like the optionseinstein told me I was crazy about. LOL

      We're not surprised. As you know, this is the pullback we expected yesterday. It may be brief, and a fiscal cliff resolution would help all stocks if the imbeciles running the country were told they will be pushed off the top of the tallest bgumpsuilding in DC one at a time until they have a signed deal that moves the country forward in a responsible manner. Conversely, cliff nonsense aside, this pullback may be just getting underway now. Today was no doubt emboldening for the unhedged short here, and for the sophisticated hedged shorts, today was likely reassuring that GMCR won't do a moonshot to $50; that will take a few quarters of quality execution. (Grinning)

      As those paying attention to my posts over the last three days should grip, we sold out the rest of the trading shares on the hyperventilating gift bump up yesterday (which we said would likely not last) and also half of the core position. We also hedged the rest of our shares at just above $40. As I wrote two days ago and repeated yesterday, my input to you guys and best advice to friends and relatives is to take easy gains when presented, especially LTCG (at just 15% through EOY 2012 -- that will be no less than 25% it seems next year). We also sold a few OTM calls out a month... we'll be happy to see them expire worthless, but also happy to deliver from our core shares down another $17 from here. I'll also let you know when we close out the hedge shorts, but hedged to neutral is easier if you have only a few k shares -- you simply sell out and enjoy the easy gains.

      We think the longer term story is intact (PT at least $50 before EPY 2013), to be sure, but we also know lots of pros took their lumps on closing out hedged shorts at $36 or so and have now re-shorted the overbought enthusiasm. We'll add back a much more shares, but only after seeing if the einhorner crowd will try to run it back to sub $30. They have done that twice since last summer as serious followers understand.

      As for what the unhedged short players will do? That is the bungie jump, flying suit, cliff jump crowd...we have no clue what they might do. LOL

      Time and experience teaches those willing to learn.

      Again, have a nice holiday season. We are looking forward to having all of the kids home together for maybe the last time as two of them are geting married this Spring.

      P.S. Good to see the ridiculous AAPL price action stopped today. Get ready for that to make a year- long run higher. Same with FIO... but one can pass or pass on both to be clear of the buzzsaw dust. In other words, we would not try to daytrade them -- we leave that fiddling to the gumptards playing for peanuts and working at the carwash when they lose their peanuts. See my comments on LVS for another story that should be a great ride throughout 2013.

    • Down over 8 % now. Have heard no news.

      • 2 Replies to southbuckeye
      • rumblers...

        Other than the effects i've been discussing for two days, it may be that einhorning and his disciples (LOL) still believe they will be proved right on GMCR (no one will renew, revs will drop, margins will shrink, no one will buy the new brewers, SBUX will disengage from kcups, and capex will remain too high and cash flow will falter vs reach solid and improving levels). Funny as that sounds to some, SBUX telling their news that they have ramped to 15% kcups market share is somewhat consistent with the short thesis... but SBUX continues to pay the kcups licensing fees and most of the known players have also done that and begun renewing on the new vue brewers. The SBUX share gains may also establish that GMCR needs some more SBUX-like heavy blends and that SBUX really ought to buy SBUX before KO does in say two years. This question will be resolved only when SBUX signs up to pay licensing fees to get on the new Vue line or comes with their own brewers and exits the kcup pods, or, again, just buys GMCR. All part of the fun studying this story going forward.

        On that point, longtimers here know we have owned SBUX several times over the last few years. They have a great story and there are times to get long and others times not. We are not impressed with the Teavanna story, but others are much so. We continue to like their SBUX store growth curve though and so remain on the sidelines for now.

        As I try to say consistently, this stuff is not rocket science, but it is not easy to get it right all the time, and even if one is right on the fundamentals and catalysts, often stocks do not respond timely... if at all.

        Good luck to all the civil posters here.

      • You mentioned shoving off a building. Can Harry Reid go first?

91.670.00(0.00%)Mar 2 4:00 PMEST