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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Jan 2, 2013 10:52 AM Flag

    A SCREAMING BUY NOW

    It's time to panic now. Unless einhorn is half as bright as we give him credit for (he makes lots of mistakes but good calls too -- and as we awrtoe here months ago, he made a brilliant call shorting GMCR on the way up to $155, but should have covered once it collapsed to below $20 the first time LOL), he is almost assuredly rethinking his "nothing has changed" thesis and has likely already covered in at least some -- if not all -- of his big short. In fact, if he is as smart as he thinks he is, he's likely net long here now as the company;s execution has smoked his thesis.

    That's right, EVERYTHING HAS CHANGED and is running contra to einhorn's thesis here. Revenues are growing ahead of plan. kCups continue to sell well. New customers are adding to their GMCR lines, Cash flow is dramatically improved. The new Vue brewers ar a monster hit. The new Vue cup line-up is expanding and selling well. And, despite the protestations of the unhedged shorts, ANYONE who has tried the products knows the coffee is excellent -- even if a small clip below a fresh ground cup of say Peets Italian roast (if you like your coffee strong). All of that boils down to operating leverage and, ultimately, EPS just beginning to reveal the monstrous upside.

    And the share repurchase plan will undoubtedly be renewed once exhausted (hopefully that has been spent already).

    In total, unhedged short dweebs can consider the above your warning. Then go listen to the Hives song titled "HATE TO SAY I TOLD YOU SO." We may send a copy of the the single over to einhorn and his "research" staff as a late holiday gift. LOL

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    • Squeezer,

      What is your background...fund manager? The biggest "change" is GMCR is now much more comfortable with there growth. They had some hypergrowth years and had trouble managing capex and inventory. Hedgies spun that as fraud. Einhorn said himself, that he did not think everything in his thesis was correct. He said, that there was so many things, that they would trip somewhere.

      • 1 Reply to jeffgra7
      • Read the post you replied to again. Then search on the terms einhorner and einhorning to see what my partner and I have been saying about Davy's "thesis" since the stock broke down below $20 on the first round trip for us.

        The update you are missing from Dave is his repeat from his shorting conference where he held out that he's now able to "einhorn" (vt) stocks with a wave of his hand and mouth. LOL Davy has been very successful over time, but as we have pointed out details on, he's also been surprisingly wrong on many things over time... as right as he was that GMCR was overvalued, it was not about r&d/capex or accounting fraud or loosing the entire franchise to competitors as some patents expired, or margins going to zero, and any other voodoo from einhorners short the stock... but he continued to assert all of those sophomoric aspects at his lame conference as he himself summed up by saying "nothing has changed" since the stock was well above $100.

        Ironically, h'es kind of right in that all of the things they tried to take the stock down with were not really problems other than more competition. GMCR execution has and will likely continue to show that while Davy had a great call on the big short above $100, he's more like his arrogant, "not as good as he thinks" following his fail to cover below $20 on round 1.

        If you grip all that, GMCR never should have been above $100 when it was, but it also should not have collapsed below $50 or so... so now things are being sorted out. In these contexts, "nothing has changed" except the stock is about double where it was when einhorn said "nothing has changed." The irony is delicious for the longs. ROFL

        As I suggested, read our posts on these topics and, from your posts, I can assure you that you'll learn a bunch if you can process info at a reasonable level... and do stop reading that Motley Fool garbage -- it can have a deleterious effect on one's IQ.

 
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