Anybody have any anecdotal channel check insights? How do you recognize the Vue machine sales in your neighborhood retailers? Lastly, based on your personal store visits or conversations with others, do you feel the Vue with almost 3 quarters under its belt has gained sales momentum, remained constant or deteriorated?
Naturally my two biggest fans would continue their suspect critique with 100% degree of inaccuracy but whatever. DrSoda is no goldenseth. I think you guys would agree not my style at all. He has definitely made money in SODA though if you read his posts. Anyway thanks Beo and Jeff for the contrabution to the conversation as you have given great insights and analysis, ok that was sarcasm. Be well and good luck!
Oh you're one of those conspiracy and paranoid "investors "???? How long you been in GMCRshiteforbrains??????? And please don't tell me you've been holding this for three months!!!!!!! If so you definitely didn't do as well us we did in SODA!!!!! Eh you're boring me with your posts!!!!!! Anyway if you die tomorrow I wont miss you so fugg off young BUCK!!!!!!!!
Jefferson, you know very well I have owned SODA with a cost averge below $30 a share in 2012. It reached my $50 price target and I subsequently sold, sticking to my core investing discipline. I don't put all my eggs in one basket unlike yourself, I diversify and move realize gains to the next investment. I took much of my gains and moved into GMCR below $40, so no, not upset at all, but thanks for caring. I also bought into BBBY and wrote about it on Seeking Alpha, look at that gain there. Nice to see you so interested in my well-being Jefferson.
SBUX reported today they sold 150,000 Verisomo brewers since launch which I beleive was in mid Sept.
That statistic indicates as compared to Keurig, their sales ratio is nearer 1:30.
Secondly if NPD report from summer last year is anything to go by " that VUE sales were twice their nearest competitor we could be looking at 300,000 + VUE brewers sold this holiday season.
However I could be wrong in my estimate.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Sam, it is the better machine compared to the Verismo or even the lower end Keurig machines, but it is still too expensive for the American consumer, even with its advanced functionality. Our estimates based on the data are they sold much less than 300,000. Here is an example, during the month of December, they sold roughly 19,000 Vue brewers at Wal-Mart. Extrapolate from there. For the consumer it's still about the Keurig.
Anecdotally, the Vue is going to take some time. Likely longer than the market will want to wait for during some period(s) of time. That said, it should prove to be THE natural single-serve transition from the Keurig. I see it going something like the auto replacement cycle of the old days, though not quite as long #$%$ years. Unfortunately, it’s not going to move as fast and with as much traction as 1-year iPhone replacements either. No, this trend is more like 2-3 yrs out. When Keurig does 25M brewers, then you can come to expect this transition to begin with greater prevalence. In the meantime, sit back and finally enjoy the K-cup weighted growth side of the equation.
I don’t know of or see many folks flocking to the Vue just yet. But that is mostly due to the point that they’ve only recently discovered the single-cup supremacy of the Keurig. Most have said they’ll likely move up to the Vue in due time. Time being of varying measures…the Keurig breaks down, they want the upgraded features of the Vue, the new machine arrives in the form of a gift or some incentive via discount purchase. Those are the most common answers I receive. But to answer your last question, my perception is that the Vue has either gained or more likely remained constant. Deteriorate, no.
WTW, cannot agree with you more. Spot on, We took on MS Dos. The replacement and upgrades were all MS Windows, since DOS became so antiquated. 2-3 years down the road all new purchases and replacements would be the VUE. Thus all the current K-Cups licencees cannot afford the snub their commercial arrangement with GMCR.
We all see the King Kong of coffee play down his competive threat to GMCR. All licencees need GMCR more than the other way round, and the market is also telling Eirhorn as well as his disguised admittance, that he got it wrong.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Based on the data from BBBY and WMT, Vue sales obviously gained momentum through the holiday season, but even over the last 2 weeks they remain strong compared to out of season sales from last year. I will publish the Vue machine CC on Seeking Alpha soon.
Wow, GMCR has a NICE POP, and our favorite PHONY LONG comes OUT OF THE WOODWORK with yet more FEAR, UNCERTAINTY, AND DOUBT!!!
Give it up SHORTY, everyone here SEES RIGHT THROUGH YOU. Time for you to break out ONE OF YOUR ALTERNATE ALIASES AGAIN!!! We all remember you and your famous CROSS-POSTING MAILMAN!!! And your ridiculous claim that SEEKING ALPHA requires you to PROVE YOUR POSITION before posting an article!!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy