Ugh, typed for a while and have to start over, delete key became back button... story of my life...
I agree in terms of the run-up, did not want to be tempted to take some risk off into earnings, and unfortunately we are getting to where I am too tempted. I am expecting a good number, but the problem is for the first time in a while everyone else is too. I do think we will get a solid number, but expecting it to seem "soft" on brewer sales. We sold 4.5 mil last year, so many may be looking for upside from that, or at least shorts and herb will jump on it if there isn't, but that number was inflated for reasons thoroughly discussed on this board. So, if we get 0.75 in eps but only sell 3.5 mil brwers worried there will be a sell off anyway... The wildcard for me is the buyback, on one hand expect it to slow down as the stock price has stabilized and increased, but this Q is the big FCF Q, so... they could easily have bought back aother 100 mil in stock.... that would knock some socks off I iamgine...
Thanks for outlining your current thinking. It agrees with my current thoughts, although I would add on GMCR there is the possibility for a short squeeze like we saw in Netflix that could launch this stock if the earnings surprise as some feel they might. I will not sell because that possibility is too good to be left behind.
As to Apple, I agree that it is time to move in, but I would like a retest of the recent low. I do not see any momentum building in that stock without a surprise announcement (China Mobile?) for several months.
Agree, been wtching apple, have never wanted to own it in the past (although kicking myself for not jumping on it when the ipod came out - remember thinking what a low margin business that seemed like it would be in no time... I guess that is the worry about the phone business now).
Back to GMCR, I do agree there is potential for a squeeze, but we have seen much of it already. Honestly, if news come out that Einhorn covers and we see a big pop, that is exactly the time to take some profits. I do have some core shares, but mostly writing cash secured puts (over and over again). I will miss out on much of the upside if we get a NFLX type move, but the premiums are too big to ignore. Would like to write some more when IV peaks going into the ER, but if we run up some more I will get too nervous... which is the reason for the coments above. Or for that matter get tempted to cash them in... Wrote Feb 45s on the dip to 43 the other day for $5 per, if they wind up getting in the $2 range starts to feel like not enough premium left to hang on... Although even with the rising stock price, rising IV is looking like it will stop them from getting there.. Will be watching closely this week...
Did you see the $4.5B educ order being finalized with the turkish govt -- they want iPads for all their kids in school. So does the rest of the world.
AAPL has MANY cataylsts to come this year... but as for momentum, now that everyone uniformly hates it (except for the legit smart money like Byrini, Gamco, etc) and the hedge fund community is quietly pulling down the hedges (note seemingly small SI of late?), that stock is ready to rock while no one expects it. The sentiment you express re "no momentum building form months" is 180 degrees reversed from the $705 going to $1100+ thinking of early October. That perfectly captures our views and the quant/chart work that sentiment is so bad it is a great time to be packing away shares in every suitcase one has.
DeMark, recovering from the aapl guidance butch on his blown exhaustion call right before earnings, repeated his "selling is exhausted" timing call yesterday if you missed it. He thinks the stock is off to rapid reversal next week now as those who want to sell have already bailed.
AAPL needs to be more agressive with mapital management though. $150/share of cash right now is ridiculous.