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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

  • braindamage223 braindamage223 Feb 1, 2013 1:45 PM Flag

    Some thoughts on the upcoming ER

    What I think about the most here, sales/earnings notwithstanding (although I certainly expect those to be excellent), are all the Einhorned shorts out there stuck in their positions. Emperor Einhorn strutted through the markets talking all about the beauty of this shiny new clothes, and there just weren't that many subjects out there willing to point out he was naked (now I'm not accusing Einhorn of naked shorting or anything like that, but then again, if he could get away with it I'm sure he wouldn't be held in check by any moral considerations....)

    But there were a few. Big kudos to carefreeihghway for never, ever dropping the ball on the reality checks. While many of us knew the PPS was not reflective of GMCR's reality, few (including myself) had the intestinal fortitude to consistently lay out the many positives.

    Anyway, with the 25% short position holding on even after Einhorn somehow managed to LOSE money on one of the most heralded bear plays of his illustrious career (not quite sure what it illustrates, lol), how confident are the shorts now that their leader has demonstrated how wrong-minded the entire campaign really was? Are all his horses and men (Antar, Greenberg, Tilson, ad nauseum) even trying to put the campaign together again? If you're a short, are you feeling supported in that position right now?

    As a long, I've always felt supported by the reality of GMCR's market trajectory. The 2009-2010 price action IMO shows the true slope of the stock's value, and when you filter out the SBUX/Einhorn noise of '11-'12, and just extrapolate from the real growth (or maybe even increase the slope a bit to account for the reality of the SBUX segment rather than just the hype) then that puts the PPS into the 70-80 range by the end of 2013, and that's the expectation I'm investing around.


90.05+0.19(+0.21%)Feb 12 4:00 PMEST