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Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Message Board

  • rurkey3232 rurkey3232 Oct 30, 2013 12:13 AM Flag

    I thought this was a no brainer short

    until it isn't

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    • If you want to trade the technicals like everybody else in this name, sure...pretty simple stuff. You basically only need to know 3-4 things. But if you actually care about the story, one thing is a no-brainer. K-cups are here to stay. They will even continue to replace wasted trips to the coffee shop. The only remaining questions are WHO will make them and HOW MUCH can they make moving all of them off the shelves. To me, Schultz changed the game on the Bears locking SBUX in a partnership with GMCR for 5 years just last year. EVERY other major partner will follow suit. Then you have the popular brands already established and made in house. So you basically have at least 75% of the K-cup market locked up with GMCR for at least the next 4 years. And that's if SBUX doesn't just buy them out sooner. Margins can contract but this entire market segment can scale well beyond this impact alone. So the Bears gotta have something else. Otherwise, this is just a technical move based on nonsense. The stock has gaps all the way down to $20 so more power to the Bears if they want to ramp up their storytelling efforts. I would gladly buy the stock there AGAIN. Now if they know of some magical non-partnered imitation coffee brand that's going to take the industry by storm, then I wish they would share that. Saying 'anybody can make k-cups' is just plain silly.

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