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Siebel Systems, Inc. (SEBL) Message Board

  • itguy340 itguy340 Jul 18, 2003 9:48 PM Flag

    It's the Economy Stupid (latest data)

    "The index's growth rate, an annualized rate for the four-week moving average that evens out weekly fluctuations, rose to 9.7 percent, its fastest growth rate since May 1987, from a revised 8.5 percent the previous week."

    Folks, M2 money supply is growing at ELEVEN PERCENT, the 10 year treasury has rebounded dramatically to 4%, the bond yield curve is steeper than Mount Everest...go figure with the most dramatic shift in monetary policy in US history.

    Welcome to the eve of the greatest boom in the history of the United States.....

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    • IT guy is about to get a much needed lesson in economics.

      The exchange between Senator Corzine and Greenspan was also pretty interesting. Corzine was reading from a Wall Street research piece that sounded like Comstock when he described the fact that the 13 rate cuts combined with prior tax cuts didn�t work so far, and asked Mr. Greenspan why he is so sure they will work now. Greenspan could only respond by telling him that �he wasn�t sure�.

      It�s just so hard for us to understand how it seems that everyone is treating the bursting of the largest financial bubble in history as if this was just a garden-variety business cycle. We think Corzine gets it, and we hope and believe that Greenspan is also very concerned. Even so, we may not find it so easy to extricate this economy out of its current mess.

      The National Bureau of Economic Research just proclaimed the 2001 recession ended in November of 2001. It took them almost two years to make this proclamation, so you know they are still not sure it really ended since we continued to lose jobs. In fact we have lost an average of 41,000 jobs a month since the so-called recovery began. We can't conceive that the final result of the financial mania will conclude with one of the mildest recession in history. We have to go along with the double dippers now, but we still think the recession never ended. In addition to employment lagging the last five economic recoveries take a look at the last attachment to see how much industrial production is also lagging as well. This may go down in the books as the weakest recovery on record, rivalling only the anemic 1980 recovery, which was similarly sandwiched between two recessions.

      As rates rise, that spending will collapse, and the economy will contract.

      • 2 Replies to inflightrefueler
      • According to the shorts the whole world was going to end this year. Remember how they were predicting every disaster scenario from the collapse of the US to collapse of the world, inflation, deflation, nuclear war, comets hitting the earth, end of our solar system etc, none of which took place. These guys either are so dumb or they make money by deceiving and scaring people.

        In the meantime, look what I found: Those who have ben singling out SEBL CEO for exercising options, why don't you say anything about ORCL and yahoo CEOs? So, SEBL is no different than any other US Company.

        Hurts, huh?
        (copyright SLC)

      • I agree with IT...economy will explode to the upside in the next 6-9 months. What's holding it back now, ironically, is the machinations of the stock market. Failure to meet revenue/income expectations slam-dunks companies. Who is willing to go out on a limb and bite the bullet by shifting to a growth mode BEFORE it's safe to do so? As profits continue to exceed expectations due to expense reduction strategies, a few companies will begin to test the waters and then the flood gates will open...everyone will shift into hiring and off the bull goes...when Companies should be hiring, which is right now, they are forced to reduce employees due to the ruthlessness of the stock market...just my opinion, but I feel confident we are on the verge of "the surge."...and just in time for the elections...throw in a few WMD finds and off we go!!!!!!!!!!

    • Hey, "ITguy" must be one SCARED hombre being in IT....wowwwwwwwwwwwwwwza. They are dying off faster than fly's here in the valley.

      Keep your head up and keep thinking, "it's gonna get's gonna get better..."


    • THAT'S a good one!

      • 1 Reply to onthejobsf
      • Yea...

        Pearl Harbor
        Tech downturn

        They all said it's quite problems. Then it suddenly hit.

        Now, it's the reverse. Nothing but maximum pessimism everywhere. No recovery in sight. Recession declared ended, but people all saying that they must be talking about somebody elses recession. Things don't last forever.

        Sir, watch YOUR RADAR.