NPD showed that there was a 670% increase in PND sales for the Black Friday week over the same period the prior year.
Mio and Magellan discounted and took some market share.
We will use an example in round numbers to make it simple.
In 05 Garmin had 60%market share
In 06 Garmin had 34%market share
If we use an example of 100,000 units sold in 05 and multiply that time 670% we get 670,000 units sold in 06.
If Garmin had 60% in 05 they would have sold 60,000 units.
If Garmin had 34% in 06 they would have sold 227,800 units.
That is "only" an increase of 294% without discounting the price. We know that the Magellan and Mio discounts have been reduced and that Garmin's market share is going back up from the 34%. If Garmin's sales remain above 200% above last year they will have a hell of a quarter. Someone is trying to steal your shares.
I like this company. To me the real question is do we know more than the analysts. I think most of you do. Clearly there is great speculation on actual Christmas sales. Only some of the discounting we see will actually be ultimately absorbed by the manufacturer. With exception of rebates Garmin's margins are likely to be fairly insulated from the significant discounting retailers are using to bring in the customers.
More important to me is Philips decision to stay out of the fray. When one, if not the largest, electroic players in the world ops out, there has to be a reason. It certainly isn't that the market isn't big enough. They could have swamped the field with advertising of their product. My guess is they chose to avoid the sector because Garmin and Tom Tom have locked up so many patents that there were more fertile fields to plow.
I enjoy reading this board and wish the best for all of you - long or short.
If I misspelled many words I apologize
"To me the real question is do we know more than the analysts."
No, but the anal-yst are a lying sack of sh-t.
They're there to serve their paying clients
and intentionally give "free" bad advice to the public.
You really don't need to dig into the numbers.
The premise that the Mio stole market share from
the major players is a joke.
And another place where your math fails is your assumption for share in 2005. Actually Garmin had considerably lower share back then (you apparently based your numbers on the quoted earlier in 2006) number. So the reality from that perspective is actually better for Garmin. But since you took me to task for "not being here long" - you need to be taken to task for sloppy due diligence.
If you read the post closely no where did I say the data was for the entire month. I referenced the black Friday Period. If you read closely you will also see that I said we were using round numbers for purposes of illustrating the example. I tried to make it simple so everyone could understand the example. Evidently I failed.
Also, your math is faulty because your share numbers apply to the entire month, while your quoted category growth is only for the week. In reality, the monthly growth was considerably less than 670% although still incredibly strong, so while the merits or your point stand the magnitude is off.
That is not debunking data, that is putting the data in context. But you are correct, I did not read the earlier thread and seeing someone start rambling about the SEC and pointing to data that is not at all false still merits a response in my opinion. The share gains by Magellan are quite frankly moer worrisome than those of Mio, but checks at most stores show they ran out of their most popular product - the RoadMate 360 which will certainly cause them to lose the majority of their share gains from November. But they are worrisome because, unlike Mio, Magellan makes a product that is not at the lowest end of the spectrum when it comes to look and feel (as opposed to functionality where frankly the Mio isn't too bad).
"I believe if I did chill for a year I'd come back Dec 07' and nothing here would change except the price of the stock. GRMN's at 105 and everyone's bitc#ing about manipulation, when's the stock going to split again, lucky's still complaining because we're not advertising in Afica, and I've made enough on this stock to buy a lake house. "
Loader- LOL. When's the split date? Mama needs a brand new house! ~ Cheep
Larry, the math looks good except for one point - the 670% increase in PND sales figure is across all brands. So it is possible that one brand had -50% increase when another brand had 1000% increase and so on (and overall they averaged out to 670%).
So, we cannot assume that GRMN had 670% increase in sales.
Also, if the Mio units are total crap (which I would suspect) how many people will keep them? Lets hope Mio doesn't turn people off from GPS and instead drives them back into the stores to demand refunds and buy Garmins.
Since most were bought as presents and are still sitting under the tree, the real disappointment in the MIO won't happen till after Christmas. Then watch for the returns and upgrades to the real deal ---GARMIN!!
Great opportunity to load up today whoch I did. Missed the low, but still happy at my entry point today.
Also, as I posted a few days ago, I asked the CC employee how the MIO is selling, he said that they sold a few on Black Friday (with a huge discount) and that was it.....been Garmin every since.
But I doubt that is why we are falling.....does not explain T2 fall........