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Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) Message Board

  • luckyrl98 luckyrl98 Jan 9, 2007 3:48 PM Flag

    PLEASE HELP

    as most of you know i am a dedicated long. my only suggestions have been for better garmin marketing.

    i had targeted 55+ for year end 2006 and it did just that. i have a personal target of 75-90 by end of 2007, and a hope for 150-200 within three years.

    do you believe my expectations are unrealistic? i was shook today by the merrill downgrade and stock drop. since i have so many family and friends in it, they have been calling me non stop today.

    i am somewhat disappointed at the lack of great announcements at CES. the apple announcement for a new widget which could eventually do gps concerns me...since they have such a powerful brand management program.

    i still believe the pnd world is very new and has a lot of growth to go...and am not too concerned about navphones and pdas with gps.

    my plan was to wait until just before price increase(i hope)prior to earnings and sell half and buy back at lower price which i have done successfully twice before.

    now the board is flooded with shortys and their doomsday pitch. this board has helped me a lot to make my original buy decision and has been of GREAT VALUE.

    GARMIN represents about 9 percent of my entire portfolio. i am retired and my wife works...so i lean toward the conservative. garmin is the only stock i own...the rest is well balanced between large/small cap, reit, gold, oil,international, bonds,utilities, and other mutual funds.

    last year i did about 20% with garmin, and about 15% without it.

    so, stealth,suzi,wixi,msgth,buffet,edison,and all you other INTELLIGENT AND WELL INFORMED LONGS....what would you do if you were me? i welcome all input..pros and cons...and would love to continue being long term for 3-5 years with garmin.

    i see no other stock today so well positioned, and no other company with such great value added products, well managed, in a brand new industry.

    do you see the pnd becoming as popular as digital cameras, hdtv? forget the ipod..it is in its own world, and rimm seems to have a lock at this point on the commercial world with its pda.

    looking forward to all comments...and SHORTIES DO NOT RESPOND...I UNDERSTAND WHAT YOUR VIEWS ARE. inquisitive LUCKY

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • "i see no other stock today so well positioned, and no other company with such great value added products, well managed, in a brand new industry."

      if these are your true views, you need to do some more research.

    • To: Lucky
      To give you a bit of background. Like you I'm retired (76) and have a comfortable living. Presently my Garmin holdings represent 15% of my total. GRMN, IBM, GE, PG,CBSH,MDU,Ford with 2% cash represent 99% of my investments not including home, cars etc. As you can see it appears conservative but I'm heavily weigted in IBM. I consider Ford a very good speculation, contrary to many and have about 3% in it.
      Regarding GRMN: I have a bit of a window into the company knowing people who have first hand knowledge of the management and operations. They have integrity and do not give me information that is confidential but I am able to get a better picture than a total outsider might. What I get is very reassuring that this organization is very special. It's my opinion that any company investment quality is 90% dependent on the quality of the management and I'm very assured that Garmin is exceptional. Unlike some of the posters here I'm not carried away, but I do think that we will see better than average returns looking ahead. Regarding your $70 plus forecast: it's possible but even if it only hits the low $60s it's a superior return. If Garmin can grow at 15% for the next 10 years you will quadruple your investment. I think that is possible but if it's too optimistic, I don't think it will miss by a wide margin. WW

    • To: Lucky
      To give you a bit of background. Like you I'm retired (76) and have a comfortable living. Presently my Garmin holdings represent 15% of my total. GRMN, IBM, GE, PG,CBSH,MDU,Ford with 2% cash represent 99% of my investments not including home, cars etc. As you can see it appears conservative but I'm heavily weigted in IBM. I consider Ford a very good speculation, contrary to many and have about 3% in it.
      Regarding GRMN: I have a bit of a window into the company knowing people who have first hand knowledge of the management and operations. They have integrity and do not give me information that is confidential but I am able to get a better picture than a total outsider might. What I get is very reassuring that this organization is very special. It's my opinion that any company investment quality is 90% dependent on the quality of the management and I'm very assured that Garmin is exceptional. Unlike some of the posters here I'm not carried away, but I do think that we will see better than average returns looking ahead. Regarding your $70 plus forecast: it's possible but even if it only hits the low $60s it's a superior return. If Garmin can grow at 15% for the next 10 years you will quadruple your investment. I think that is possible but if it's too optimistic, I don't think it will miss by a wide margin. WW

    • IMHO you are way too diversified with too many funds.I personally hate the mutual fund industry!There are more funds then listed stocks.You would do very well to sell all your funds and reposition your prtfolio.Do you need income? what's your risk tolerance? As far as Garmin goes I sold off my stock position @ 51 and change after buying in at 30 I still have some april calls @a 40 strike So I am long but gingerly.I made over 25K on all my Garmin positions stock and options good luck

    • I am a yield palyer so I don't have too much at risk with Garmin. It is still the largest hodlding I have.

      I have made very few tech purchases but Garmin was too good to pass up. I bought it because I thought Wall Street analysts were way off the mark in terms of how big the GPS industry is.

      I fully expect Garmin's market share will decline as will their margins. I just am hoping that either the market grows faster than they do or a bigger player buys them out.

      I am not selling on downgrades or perceived threats. I am certainly not selling on what Larry describes as what hedge fund managers can do on a daily basis. His insight is really helpful when you get scared.

      I wish you well. I am really hoping I have the VHS stock instead of the Betamax. I don't know. I do know that if you read this board you will be better informed than the analysts trying to cover this stock on a part time basis.






      w

    • Lucky, I added today....and have powder to add more if needed. Last year Garmin had 2 downgrades and one initiate at a 'hold' early in the year.....the stock flew right after that. Jan 20 was the bottem last January.....went up for 6 months after that.

      • 1 Reply to stealthtrader1968
      • Lucky
        All of my Garmin positions were bought between the mid twenties and 46.50. Today I added to my long term holdings at 51.38. I have looked at all of the numbers and I am truly thankful for the opportunity to add more.
        This time next year we will all be here bitching because the idiot shorts have dropped the pps from 77 to 72 and will again be suffering through the posts of the lying scum of the earth morons who crawl out of their holes and claim to have shorted at the top and covered at the bottom. I give them two posts and if they haven't said anything intelligent they go ignore. My list may be full soon.
        Larry

    • "...i was shook today by the merrill downgrade and stock drop."

      Warren Buffett said: "Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market."

      • 1 Reply to buffetteer17
      • I have only been in GRMN for a few months now. I was planning on putting in an order at $53.00 and hoping it would get filled. I cancelled that order last night, didnt think it would get filled. Got home from work today and saw the stock at $51 ish and bought more. Great Balance sheet, was shocked to see it for the first time. People probably sold today on the downgrades and to get some cash for Apple. $500 phone oh my god...

    • One thing I NEVER DO is convince anyone to buy any stock that I own, I may tell them where I put my money and why. Thats it. I let them know that how they invest is up to them. Dont come crying if it goes south. I believe GRMN is going higher long term, I love watching this board and the price swings. If I had any more money laying around, I would have bought more today. Been buying since it tanked to 45, bought it all the way up to 55 because my goal is to own as many shares as possible. I need my money back in 12 years. Sleep easy and be patient.

    • No your expectations are not unrealistic. Uh-oh that's 3 negatives. How about this. They are realistic.

      Why is it when the stock goes on sale everyone wants to sell? As a long term investor- go back to sleep. If you want to trade this thing its not easy. I made $3k this morning on a 26min trade but that's a rare event. I just trade the most obvious of patterns. I only do 3-4 trades a month now.

      Here's a tip for you. When you are the most scared about your stock- when you feel like its going to hell. Buy it. When you feel like everything is going your way and no way this thing can loose. Sell it. If you do that you'll make money most of the time. Other than that just hold it until something seriously fundamental changes.

    • Lucky: I agree with 80% of your post.
      Where I disagree is thinking Garmin will drop after
      earnings. It went up same time last year.

      Tell your friends that anal-yst are contrary indicators
      and downgrades are a good sign. Same is true for Cramer.
      After years of watching Wall $treet Week, I never
      made a dime listening to their advice.

      What I find helpful is reading independent sources:
      trade journals.

      The Apple iPhone is a good example of great things
      to come.

      Garmin isn't in the navigation business.
      They're in the travel business and the future will
      be mind blowing...if I live that long.

      • 3 Replies to edison_2_0
      • "Where I disagree is thinking Garmin will drop after
        earnings. It went up same time last year."

        2006 was a fluke. You'd best look at 2004 and 2005 as guidance for what's likely to happen in 2007. You're going to hear a lot more about convergence as the iphone rolls out, along with all kinds of speculation about its expanding capabilities which will be fodder for the analysts. I'm afarid its going to get much, much worse for us before it gets better.

      • Steady as she goes, Lucky. Courage, man. Hang in there. Garmin long term will do well for you.

        There are certainly times when I have to screw up my own courage and I know that some days are difficult to face the barrage of cannon fire.

        I'm careful about running my mouth about Garmin to anyone - wife included. I just can't assume that someone else's risk tolerance is similar to mine. I don't want any blood on my hands in case things go really bad. You just never know when the Taliban will target Kansas.

      • The recent downgrades were artfully "timed" to coincide with end-of-year management sales to project a weak image, allowing funds to buy in at a lower share price.
        AmTech, Merrill,and "No Name" Investments, Inc. *LOL* are manipulating news to pressure the stock!

        End-of-year 2006 sales data has not been released yet, don't worry too much....if I had some spare cash, I would average down and HOLD past earnings & into next quarter.

 
GRMN
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