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Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) Message Board

  • suziday suziday Aug 10, 2007 10:41 AM Flag

    Don't use your dry powder yet

    There is going to be more blood in the street. All of the black box funds were down about 15% since July 1st. The Black box funds probably properly priced the debt in the market. The announcement that the fed is reviewing the pricing of debt at the big five and their hedge funds probably means mark downs and liquidation is coming. The hedge funds who played the market properly smell the blood in the street. The MM tried to support prices but you could see them getting out of the way. I don't think the nest few days are going to be pretty. I am updating my buy list based on what will be on sale.
    Larry

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    • Larry-You don't sound like a know it all- just a guy who does his homework.
      Me? I will sound like a neophyte, I dont know how to write calls, never shorted a stock and most of what I read from certain guys on this board is above my head. Yet I am up close to six figures by buying quality companies and holding them.

      My only mistake this year was buying NVT for $46 and selling at $54.00.
      I then repurchased at $65.50. I also have a few hundred shares at 54.00
      I learned the hard way "no profit is a bad profit" in the 1990's but this move was dictated purely by emotion.

      So.. I very much hope u are incorrect with NVT seeing $40's again but time will tell.
      This market is impossible to fidure out.
      I was sure after watching CNBC at 6am- today would have been a nightmare.

      I plan on reading on BWLD- we will see
      Regards

    • Thanks for the insight you bring to the board on Garmin.
      It was due to your and Loader, Edison, and others posting that I felt comfortable to load up starting back in September.

      I held on until today, but finally sold all of my Garmin. Still love the company but this market makes me way to nervous. Plus all of the shares are in an IRA so no taxes to pay on the sale.

      I will keep watching your and others posting to see when it might be safe to load up on Garmin again.

      • 2 Replies to gandalf_guinn
      • I also (due to guys like Loader- Stealth- Edison and others that I bought in December. Also the reason i didnt seel in bad markets was their insights- yes and my own DD - but the
        some posts provided a better "raod map".

        Due to buying at 50- I can afford to sit tight in the market. I have found that my emotions usually KILL and cost me serious money.

        I keep playing in my mind the CEO of GRMN on Fast Money stating just how infintesmal the current market penetration is and the upside should eventually boom.

        So- I am still long.

        I wish I could say same for NVT-
        I bought at $42 then added (to me) significant money at $65.50. I was sure this was going to open -$6.00

        I am relieved its still up over 60-(day is young)

        GL

      • gandalf_guinn: Thanks for the compliment.

        I still have Garmin in my IRA.
        Its not that much so I don't touch it.

        Take a look at BWLD. Keep in mind that they
        bought out their Las Vegas franchisee and
        have applied for a gambling license.
        I bought some at 31.75 and plan to buy more.

        (My sentiment is contrary)

    • Larry,

      I disagree short term. If they let the market go today, margin calls will push it under on Monday. I think the rescue rangers come out today. Keep the change you filthy animals!

    • Larry any personal predictions for what the realistic bottom for Garmin might be and in what time scale ?

      • 1 Reply to nandasiri
      • I was not very good at predicting the top. I sold all the way from 70 to 100 where I run out of shares. If Garmin trades with my market predictions we should settle into a range of 82 to 95 for this quarter. I am a little worried about the quarter 3 earnings report. I know they will be good but not good enough to drive the multiple. You probably am aware that I was pretty close to target on this past quarters earnings and I based my prediction on my analysis of sell in vs sell through with the idea that there was 75 million in channel fill for quarter 2. It looks like a lot of the channel fill was in marine and outdoor. The earnings were not as good for quarter 1 as sell through would have indicated and a lot better for quarter 2. My guess is that the numbers for quarter 3 will make it look like growth has slowed particularly for marine and outdoor. Wall Street understands this and can use the information to trade the stock however they want. Right now I am looking for TTM earnings to be around 3.20 and I think the absolute bottom would be 21 or 22 times that with a realistic prediction of a low in quarter 4 of somewhere between 75 and 80.
        Larry

 
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