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Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) Message Board

  • goldencanucks goldencanucks Feb 21, 2008 3:29 AM Flag

    Price Poll - 21st March,2008

    2 months ago everyone and their uncle (Jim Cramer, the Fast Money monkeys, you name it) was bullish on technology. Today with less than 20% of the stocks in the Nasdaq trading above their 200 day MA these same analysts are bearish technology.

    I have found mainstream media to be a great contrarian indicator. Ever since they have been bearish on the housing sector, housing stocks have registered a nice 50% gain (RYL, KBH, NVR to name a few).

    I personally use a Garmin GPS and have found their products to be consistently superior in performance and value. This stock today is behaving very similar to RIMM before its explosive move upwards with valuation metrics like P/E at 17 and Price/Book at bargain basement levels.

    Make no mistake GPS is anything but a fad wand is here to stay.

    GRMN is becoming an increasing one sided (short) trade with every mom and pop hedge fund out there. I am betting that this trade has run its course and a short squeeze is imminent.

    I expect the market to begin a sustained rally sometime pretty soon that should take the SPY back to 145. Stocks like GRMN which have been heavily shorted and housing stocks which have been everyone's favorite whipping boy would be my best bets on the long side.

    I expect GRMN to be trading in the high 90s (absurd as that may sound to the naysayers) pretty quickly.

    Any educated guesses for the stock price on the 3/21/08 (A month from now)
    My guess: $95 (or higher)

    Full Disclosure: Long GRMN

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    • with one week to go...

    • Last chance to get your price estimate in. I will post the winner of the poll in a months time. Good luck to you all!

      • 1 Reply to goldencanucks
      • I am going to go with $73.25.

        Nothing, and I mean nothing, is fundamentally wrong with this stock. This price is fear and fear alone of 1) PND prices dropping 20% in 2008 and 2) consumer discretionary spending drying up. Unfortunately, until we start seeing some smart acquisitions with the over 1 Billion in cash as well as another hot new product (beyond nuvifone) I don't see this stock trading above $80. I have never tracked a stock where sentiment is ignoring fundamentals as much as GRMN.



        Disclosure; I am GRMN long since Jan 2008 ave $80 and am in for the long haul.

    • I wouldn't be surprised to see it get up around 75 - 80

    • range bound til next earnings. mid range 62-73 outside ranges 73-79 and 55-62. expect buying heavily
      in 55-62 and selling in 73-79.
      most consumer electronic stocks are in same mode- aapl
      rimm etc.
      this is in a basing pattern. after a big fall takes a while to get going
      i am buyer in 55-62 range . end of yr see 90-105

    • $72 by mid March pulling back to $68.29 on March 21, then a slow and choppy path upwards near $80 by the end of the year.

    • My guess hi 60's - low 70's at a dow around 12500. with a forward pe of about 14 with a clear understanding among analysts that Garmin always low balls there isn't much downside here. The problem is there doesn't seem to be any reason to buy yet. We are several months away from any news that could move this stock. I like it and am just going to wait it out.

    • I think it will be tough to hit $95 in a month. There is still so much big money flowing out of the market right now that it will be tough to swim against the current.

      Once the dead money flees though, look out. Companies like Garmin are probably the safest long term investments there are: high demand for high dollar products with sky high (yet slightly decaying) margin, diversified over many different sectors (automotive, aviation, marine, fitness), and most importantly: NO DEBT!

      The money will start coming back in, and when it does, companies like Garmin are going to be the first place that money gets stashed.

      I'd predict $95 in six months, but not 30 days.

    • Low 60.
      Get out while you still can.
      This stock has no big institutional supports.

    • My guess is $78.50

      I agree with you 100% and own 3 Garmin products and way too much GRMN stock but just can't see $95 in a month. There are too many external forces acting on stock prices to make a rational guess.

      We're in a recession - no we're not. It's an election year and stock prices always go up in an election year - Bush's own party doesn't want to claim him and the fed has just about shot their wad. Beating the crap out of analyst's predictions means a rise - nope, not yet. TomTom's quarterly almost admits they're falling behind - Garmin goes down.

      I do see a small ray of sunshine in recommendations since earnings report and even The Street has raised their rating. I don't watch Cramer but hope he's still spewing "Sell-Sell".

      Disclaimer - I bought GRMN yesterday at $62.39 and 62.68 today but am still way underwater. I hope you're right.

      • 1 Reply to av8ndv8
      • My last post is when I bought a ton of JCP last month at 37 and 34 per share. Cramer and the rest said stay away from this and most other retail. After selling out a few days ago I was looking for the replacement stock and today put it into Garmin. (12 point profit of JCP) in down market. I bought 5000 shares at 64 and 5000 shares at 63 and sold the march 70 calls for a couple of bucks. My opinion is that the market has oversold this issue and I will by more if we see a sell off from here. The ratings speak for themselves and the product is great. I will continue to roll these options until I get taken out!

    • Maybe someone could look these postd up when March 21 rolls around. My guess is 62.72.

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