The Street sees GRMN as a One-Trick Pony ... With the iPhone and other cell phone makers putting it into their products, this stock is going lower ....
Do your own research.
It may only be one trick. But it is a really really great trick. Garmin has the shizznaz! It's off the hook. No cell phone will ever ever replace a good auto GPS. How do I take a call on my GPS? I need it right where it is, on the dashboard.
Does the street really see Garmin as a one trick pony or is that what they want all of the retail investors to believe? They are the same ones who told us that Sony, Phillips etc would obliterate Garmin. They are the same ones who told us last quarter that the SIRF numbers implied certain doom for Garmin.
They are now telling us that the market is maturing. Cramer even told us it was now a commodity and that Nokia and Apple would be giving away what Garmin is selling next year. Some analyst even reduced earnings estimates for the current quarter.
Wall Street knows a lot more than we give them credit for. The DB analyst even commented on how much each of the players ended up with in inventory after the Christmas season. Do you believe that Wall Street is trying to help you as an individual investor to sell your shares to them before the total collapse? Without exception every stock I have ever owned that has been overhyped to the downside when the financial reports indicated other wise has turned out to be a long term winner.
Garmin would probably be properly valued at this level if you did not expect them to continue to innovate and commercialize new applications for GPS. We are now expected to believe that Garmin will just quit. I am taking my cue from Min and Gary. They both have trading plans in to sell a few million shares, and do so ever year and then give the money to charity. If they thought a collapse was imminent they could have dumped quite a bit of stock at a much higher level. I believe they understand the future of the company a lot better than the bashers.
A poster sometime ago message with a link regarding the confessions of a paid basher. Did you see that? Anyway I got one important thing to take away from that. It was the remark that you never see bashers on message boards of stocks where the fundamentals are truly bad. While that isn't universally true, there is a difference in the tone of the messages. Where the fundamentals are bad, the negative remarks are more inclined to show interest in learning by questioning in a respectful manner. Tha bashers we see hear use the same tired negative arguments we've seen for several years along with poisionous and frequently vulgar remarks. It fits with the image I have of the low lifes that inhabit some of the Wall St firms WW
"the street"; aren't they also the same "wiz kids" that have lost billions in this sub prime debacle.
If one has learned nothing else by witnessing what is going on with all this sub prime mess it should be that these "mental midgets" doing know one damn thing more than than the rest of us!
So all should realize that your beliefs/ideas are just as valid as anyones.
That said; if one looks globally at all the applications of GPS and where Grmn has been; where they are going and how they have improved well...... (I've bought plenty at these low levels and I have no regrets; MHO)