I was going to sell at the start of earnings day and buy back a few days later... but now I just plan to hold.
Several things are upsetting my plan. 1. The general market correction is not going as I expected. I talked to several of my friends and they all have significant amounts of cash in bonds. I told them that bonds have no where to go but down and that I know stocks (GRMN) that pay just as well as bonds plus...
I also looked up cyclic bond graphs on astrocycle.net and saw something else that was very disturbing. There's a 40 year cycle and we're at the mid-point with bubble reversal.
As money comes out of bonds, it only has two places to go: stocks and commodities (like Gold).
2. HAR gapped up after its earnings, but is showing no sign of retreating. There is a chance GRMN may do the same.
Even if GRMN does correct after earnings, it may occur so fast that cash accounts get locked out by the T+3 day rule.
Short term, I am unable to predict this market. 18 months out there's no question in my mind that the whole market is going significantly higher.
18 months out however is probably the top as cash strapped baby boomers start cashing in their stocks. There's a lot of them and they don't want to be selling at the bottom of another 4 year sell off.
You mentioned that in 18M, cash strapped baby boomers will start cashing out. I don't beleve we will see that drastic cash withdrawal you are referring to. The oldest boomers will turn 65 in 18M. The cash strapped early boomers have already been selling their stocks since they turned 59-1/2 (2007). Actually, the boomers are currently at their peak earning years (43 - 63) and pouring cash into the market.