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Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) Message Board

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  • dcells86 dcells86 Feb 22, 2010 12:56 PM Flag

    Buy the rumor Sell the news? We

    You mentioned that in 18M, cash strapped baby boomers will start cashing out. I don't beleve we will see that drastic cash withdrawal you are referring to. The oldest boomers will turn 65 in 18M. The cash strapped early boomers have already been selling their stocks since they turned 59-1/2 (2007). Actually, the boomers are currently at their peak earning years (43 - 63) and pouring cash into the market.

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    • I love your comment DC. Do you think there is any hint of delevering that our economy needs to go through, or is it all done? Is it just staight up from here? Do the 10% unemployed spend like they used to? Credit is more rare than a Bigfoot sighting. Do the rest of us obtain credit and spend like we used to? Do you honestly believe after 50% of the average person's nestegg dissappeared, they are going back in 50-60%+ into equites knowing they only have a few years of earning power left?

    • dcells: Good point.
      When I say cash strapped baby boomers,
      I am referring to after they retire, not now.

      Referring to astrocycle.net, I saw another graph that disturbed me.

      It was a long term logrithmic graph of the S&P 500.

      It correlated the 1929 bubble with the 2000 bubble.
      No surprise there.

      Guess where it correlated the 1932 bottom? 1974.

      According to this chart, the 2008 bottom was no where near as depressed as 1974.

      Guess where we are now?
      At the high end of normal.

 
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