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Garmin Ltd. Message Board

  • edison20 edison20 Oct 4, 2012 10:48 PM Flag

    Recession Coming

    According to monthly statistics in the Bay Area, companies continue to report difficulty in hiring software engineers. However, job openings fell 4% month to month to 20,055 in September, a drop of 32% from last year.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • This reply is to Edison's post (yahoo didn't provide a "reply" box for some unknown reason).

      I agree that it feels like we're going into 1937. The Central Banks have shot all their bullets, all the fiscal stimulus is wearing off. Protectionist sentiments are rising around the world and trade wars loom.

      Commodity prices are high and taxes are rising. Consumer sentiment is still fragile. In the stock market, the potential for another panic is not far below the surface.

      The chance of a recession within the next 12 months. Maybe, it has already started. Although, Obama's BLS claims that we are adding new jobs at a rate consistent with 5 percent GDP growth (Or maybe, that was from the B#$%$ department).

      Consumer discretionary electronic toys don't do well in recessions.


    • I think the US recession already started, perhaps in August or September. It is common for the market and the pundits to fail to recognize a recession in real time. It is typical for employment numbers and GDP to be over estimated, and months later revised downward around the start of a recession.

      I'm looking at leading indicators like employment, ISM reports, new orders, consumer spending and income. They're all in the tank and have been for a while.

      • 1 Reply to buffetteer17
      • It really hard to tell because the economy Obama and the Fed are pumping like crazy to try and hold on to power. They may even be releasing phony and/or manipulated numbers.

        My sense is that we will post positive growth for 2012, with Q4 turning back up somewhat. My forecast for 2013 is -1 to +1 percent.

        I would note that the price of gold has more than doubled over the past 4 years. This is a harbinger of coming inflation and a vote of no confidence in the currencies of the major economies.


    • Europe is already in a recession and Asia's growth is decelerating rapidly. Our exports have fallen
      off of the table.

      The next Middle East war and a spike in the price of oil could come about any day (as could the next terrorist attack).

      The American consumer (2/3 of our economy) is still spending, but cautiously. However, consumer confidence is a fragile thing.

      There are plenty of headwinds, as reflected in the depressed stock prices of cyclical industrials. But, a recession is not a sure thing. The broad range of likely outcomes for the American economy over the next 12 months is -2 to +2 percent. My estimate is +1 percent GDP growth.

      Job growth will continue to be anemic. And, the continuing debasement of the currency guaranties deferred inflation. It won't likely show up in 2013 because demand is just to weak. But, there will be a price to be paid.

      Both Obama and Romney are liars. Both parties will raise taxes on the middle class. This is a middle class country. When you need to raise significant money, you get it from the middle class.

      Under Romney and a Republican Congress, you would see more growth and investment in the U.S. If Obama is re-elected, there will be an acceleration in capital flight to lower cost countries.


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