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Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) Message Board

  • jchristhil jchristhil Oct 31, 2012 11:13 AM Flag

    defies all logic

    how can this stock sell off, when they just beat earnings estimates by a wide margin, as well as revenues. Also upped full year guidance. There is some unknown force out there manipulating this stock; has been for some time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Typical market reaction. I've always felt it is a bad idea to trade on or just before earnings announcements regardless of the outcome for the very reason that the market is so irrational.
      This sort of reaction happens all the time, even with AAPL.
      As mentioned above, I think it is simply a process of old money making room for the new.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to trackthis57
      • There is one issue. Gross revenue was down. They beat just on earnings. That means their business is not growing, or shrinking a little, but they make money by being so good at managing the business and costs.
        Making or beating the numbers with great management and cost control is great, but you do eventually run out of rope. Constant increase in top line revenue provides the opportunity for good earnings perpetually.
        Some folks must be concerned, or are making a short sell play, with the top line revenue decrease. I do not think it will last long since automobile sales are on fire. Garmin benefits. The Market knows that.

        Sentiment: Buy

    • I agree on the defying of logic. There must be a mutual fund or other institution that wanted to lighten up or get out before their fiscal year end or this months/years reporting of the portfolio, and the buyers are light today. A good day for the individual investor to buy.
      I think the "pop" on the open was the logical response of some short covering and a few investors buying on the news - which once again was good. I am sure this little "sell on the news" is a one day event. By Friday we should have a nice solid gain from last weeks end.

      Today's close should be interesting. Would not be suprised to see a quick move up the last hour.
      Some small funds must find this stock attractive and they have a great price today.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Yes, the Wall St shorts are using their alogrithm driven trading to manage the reaction to the good news. I've been a stock market investor since 1964 and the market has always been crooked short term because the "Crowd" has many ways to cheat you and they get filthy rich doing it. That said, stock valuations in the long run track the earnings of the company. If you want to make a lot of money in the stock market, you must take a long term perspective and follow the fundamentals carefully. The news is frequently manipulated. It reminds me of the episode in the music business where media people were paid to promote specific music. Do you remember "Payola"? Manipulation of stocks are effected by controlling what goes into your mind. They will put a spin on the news depending on how they will trade against you. One method is to keep a scare story in the news constantly, like the EU banks. Anyone paying attention will notice that the analysts frequently, if not most of the time, prove completely wrong if you track the performance over more than a few weeks. Back in the early 80s I made some good gains betting just the opposite of the spin on Treas. Bonds by Henry Kaufman of Solomon Bros. who was given a big reputation by the media. Bottom line, Garmin is a great company and I am very comfortable with what is for me a large position. WW

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