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Garmin Ltd. Message Board

  • wixiewaxy wixiewaxy Apr 15, 2013 11:51 AM Flag

    Just Thinking

    This morning reviewing my stock actions over the last year I realized that yielding to my wife's concerns and pressure has cost us about $200k in gains if I had just stuck with my strategies. Although I have consistently beat the averages she isn't comfortable with letting me handle it. In the past I just ignored her because she has zero financial savy and is just opposed to risk. If something happens to me first, she won't lose it all because she'll bury it in the mattres and just let the moths eat it up. She's exactly like most people and most investors always upset from listening to all the media hype. Most of the characters CNBC interviews constantly have opinions that are not worth anything and often worse than wothless. The stock market is manipulated I know but if you aren't trying to win in the short run it's the best place to be because if the economy long term is a failure there isn't any place to hide. It all comes down to the alternatives.
    Change of thought: We keep getting these constantly repeated negatives on Garmin. Look at the recent one from a Motley Fool site. Garmin isn't going much either way, up or down, for now but the dividend is safe and the company is solid with very good management and they are the quality leaders in every market in which they compete. I'm very comfortable owning it and think the shorts have to be a little stupid if they can't find a better vehicle to short. WW

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • sell your wife-keep your portfolio.

    • Get a chart or a piece of your own graph paper. Go back to 4/23/2003. Draw a line straight to todays closing price.
      Note that the stock appreciated 300% or compound at about 20% a year - if you simply held!. Toss in today's dividend!!!
      This stock has made me wealthy and will continue to make me wealthy. Take out the mid-2000's price spike where any of us with brains sold and rebought later.
      Any day a Raytheon, United Technologies, or Honeywell could take a stab at GRMN. Look at it's financials and balance sheet - and you find it is a "Warren Buffett" type of company. Nobody but me cares about that!!

      Chill - wait for the positive "white swan event" that could move this stock 40% in a day. Maybe in 2013, maybe 2014 - who cares - as you collect a 5.5% dividend in an R&D company, with real new products. Sure - no cell phones - but lots of product for boats, airplanes and sportspeople.

      Enough said!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • ww,

      Your an IBM guy, as I recall.

      What do you make of todays sell off? Time to buy or run away?


      • 1 Reply to captainbaldo
      • Captain, IBM is doing just fine and it's cheap and probably will go down some more, I'm guessing to about $182 where, If I'm correct, I'll be selling PUTs. The sell off wasn't a surprise to me and as you know it's not unusual for stocks to get hammered on a small revenue miss. I don't think IBM's management is all that concerned about smoothing revenue since contract signings just don't fit the quarterly reporting dates and I think they are very confident of the company position. IBM cherry picks the service business leaving the marginal stuff to the copetitors. They sacrifice revenues for better margins. See below:

        IBM (NYSE: IBM) posted top-line revenue of $23.4 billion, which was down 5% year over year, but it did post increased bottom-line earnings of 8% year over year. IBM’s big initiatives of a smarter planet and cloud computing were up over 25% and 70%, respectively. As these items continue to grow, they will contribute to greater portions of IBM’s earnings.

        IBM has stated that it will shift to higher value services, even if that gives up some revenue. This is exactly what we saw, with revenue declining 3% to $23.4 billion for the quarter, while earnings increased to $3.00 per share for the quarter. IBM expects to earn $16.70 per share for 2013, as sales were pushed from the first quarter into the second quarter.

        Sentiment: Buy

    • christophmil Apr 16, 2013 12:40 PM Flag

      Just trade your half. That's the fair thing to do. I'll keep Garmin until I get "EVEN" :)

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