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Qunar Cayman Islands Limited Message Board

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson May 15, 2014 8:43 PM Flag

    gross margin forecasted to move even lower going forward

    game over - this will get ugly tomorrow

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    • You mean ugly like when CTRP said the same thing last Q and the stock rallied 20% the next day off the better revenue growth?

      Here's a sell-side comment on the results from QUNR this eve:
      Solid 1Q14 result with accelerated 2Q14 guidance - Qunar reported a solid 1Q14 with total revenue growing 83.6% yoy to US$54.0mn (Rmb335.5mn), exceeding our and consensus estimates by 5.5%/6.9% and exceeding the guidance range of US$49.1-50.6mn (65%-70% yoy growth), mainly driven by an 89.8% yoy increase in flight revenues and 54.8% yoy increase in hotel revenues. Mobile revenue grew by 415.1% y/y to RMB106.3mn (US$17.1mn), representing 31.7% of total revenue (19.8% in 4Q13). More importantly, Qunar guided 2Q14 total revenues to grow 90-95% yoy (flat to +2% qoq), implying Rmb334.6-343.4mn or US$53.8mn-55.2mn, exceeding our estimate of US$48.5mn by 15% and consensus estimate of US$50.5mn by 8%. On first glance, we view this as a very solid set of results and view the accelerated top line guidance as impressive and will seek colour on the call regarding the overall competitive dynamics and upcoming spending initiatives.

      Conference call at 8PM 15 May EST /8AM 16 May HKT: Dial-in: +1-613-514-2526 (US) or +852-5808-3202 (Hong Kong). Pass code: “1002163”.

      What to listen for on the call - 1) Update on the traffic contribution from Baidu under the Zhixin Cooperation Agreement; 2) update on the competitive environment and hotel coupon pricing war; and 3) profitability timeline.

      1Q14 results: Qunar reported its total revenue for 1Q14 rose 83.6% y/y and 33.7% q/q to Rmb335.5mn (US$54.0mn), compared to our/consensus US$51.2mn/US$50.6mn (source: Bloomberg) and beat company’s guidance of US$37.7-38.9mn (+65%-70% y/y). Its P4P service revenue expanded 89.6% y/y to RMB319.1mn (US$51.3mn) in 1Q14 with P4P flight and flight-related revenues increasing by 89.8% y/y to RMB235.4mn (US$37.9mn), mainly driven by the 75.2% y/y increase in flight search queries and 8.4% increase in revenue

33.04+3.03(+10.10%)Oct 2 4:00 PMEDT