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Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • regn727 regn727 Jan 16, 2013 1:03 AM Flag


    You are one of the best posters on all of YMB's, very knowledgable. I've been lurking on these boards for a while. I have also been long REGN since 50's now and also believe strongly in the REGN story. I was going to ask you which other companies are you long in biotech?

    I am long AFFY. They have a very similar situation to REGN, with their dialysis drug (less dosing, cheaper pricing). However they lack deep pipeline like REGN. Nonetheless, my target is $30-40 in 2013. It's my 2nd largest position after REGN.

    I have been swing trading PCYC since $30 breakout, it has a lot of potential and It could also be another one that goes to $100-200+. That wont happen till it breaks out above $70 though.

    I am also long CLSN at the moment, phase 3 Liver Cancer data expected any day now (by Jan 31)

    ARIA, CLDX, SGEN, OGXI, and INFI also look seem like good companies. No positions ATM.

    But In terms of multiple baggers or small cap companies, so far the ones I like are CLSN and GALE. I think GALE is seriously undervalued at 150m mkt cap for Phase 3 HER-2 Breast Cancer Immunity eliminating cancer recurrence potentially. Science still needs to be proven in full, but It could run up to $5-10 into data, then $15-100 if their vaccine is approved and commercial success.

    Any other small cap (

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • The paragraph below was included as part of my January 17th post:

      CYTK, EXEL, KERX and ZIOP - These four small cap stocks are NOT for the average individual investor. They are extremely high risk plays and all trade below $5 per share (CYTK was recently traing at .69 per share). However, all have good balance sheets, except CYTK, strong institutional backing and the potential to deliver explosive upside growth over the next 3 - 5 years. BUYER BEWARE!!!!!!

      Did you happen to see EXEL today!!!!! I nailed it!!!! Trading up 80% today!!!! Its going higher over the next 60-days!!!! Listen to the conference call and check out what the analyst are saying. The news was even more positive than I thought it would be.

      For all of you out there who thought REGN was going to be over $200 by the end of last year or early in 2013 you may have to wait a little longer. No, I am NOT short REGN. If you've read all my posts, I've been long for a very long time and still like the stock a lot. I'm just a little bit more realistic what the valuation should be. Check out all my posts on REGN!!! Earning on Friday!!!! They will be very strong.

      Slow and steady!!!! Good luck to all!!!!

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Thanks for the kind words. I always try and be straight forward and honest about my posts. Its hard to find on YMB sometimes.

      As I've said in other posts here is what I like in the biopharma world:

      CELG - It has the best pipeline in the industry. Strong balance sheet and cashflows and getting stronger. It has just made a breakout move (based on the comments at the JP Morgan conference) from the up 70s to the upper 90s. I actually think in the short term its ahead of itself and is do to correct back down to the mid to upper 80s. On a long term basis I like it a lot. I think it could push the $180+ range within the next 4 - 5 years.

      REGN - You all have heard and seen my views on this stock. It has the second best pipeline in the industry. Unlike some of the bulls on this site, I called for REGN to hit some resistance in the $180 to $200 range. It wouldn't surprise me at all if it sold down to below the $150 range in the near term. If you have followed all my posts you would know I sold Put options at $90 and Call options at $220 and $250 that expire out in January. I got awesome premiums on all sides as I sold when the volatility was high and people were talking about REGN hitting $300 by the end of 2013 (sorry but its not going to happen). I have also shared my EPS estimates for the next 4 or 5 years on REGN. I am above the street but the street has been chasing the upward trend since the EYLEA launch. My option strategy was simply to hedge against a pull back and I was expecting the stock to trade between $135 and $240 or so during 2013. There are no short term catalyst to really drive the stock much higher in 2013 (some international approvals but they are already expected and priced in).

      GILD - An excellent pipeline that also had a strong 2013. I would like to see a pullback close to $70 before I would add to the position. I would like to get one more bite at the apple before letting the explosive growth take over. Excellent hepatitis and HIV franchises, Outstanding balance sheet. As you can tell, I'm a balance sheet guy. Strong balance sheets lead to strong results.

      PCYC - I made excellent money last year but got called away in November in the low $60s. Glad I got to get in again around $50. I've been selling lots of short term out of the money Calls. I think the stock is pricey and you need to be careful but if you are willing to sell volatility and get called away I think you can make some good short term trading money with this one. I DO NOT ADVOCATE INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS DAY TRADING OR SHORT TERM TRADING. However, I do thing smart investors who perform good due diligence can increase their overall performance by 300 to 500 basis points by selling short term high volatility Call options.

      QCOR - Is a very interesting play at these prices. It was on a roller coaster last year and is NOT for the faint of heart. You need an iron stomach to play this one but the balance sheet is in excellent shape and the company deliveries significant cash flow. It is much more a marketing and execution company that a R&D biopharma company.

      ARIA - I own a big position but got in early. I think the stock has hit a wall in the $20 to $23 range. It will need to deliver strong sales results to get it moving much pass the current levels. I'm not a buyer and have been selling Calls when it runs up. It has become and execution story more than a traditional R&D story (though they are looking to expand the label on their new drug).

      ALXN - I was late to the dance on this one and decided NOT to create a position. I think its pricey and needs to significantly exceed expectations if its going to go much higher. It may happen but I just don't think the value is there at this time. Because it has a high volatility, I've been selling Put options down at $85 and $90. It has worked well for me collecting the premium. I wouldn't mind owning the stock at those levels so I'm ok if it gets putted to me. I just don't want to pay upwards of $100 at this point. If it pulls back again to the low $90s I'll probably sell some more Puts.

      CYTK, EXEL, KERX and ZIOP - These four small cap stocks are NOT for the average individual investor. They are extremely high risk plays and all trade below $5 per share (CYTK was recently traing at .69 per share). However, all have good balance sheets, except CYTK, strong institutional backing and the potential to deliver explosive upside growth over the next 3 - 5 years. BUYER BEWARE!!!!!!

      I think this is enough to keep most people busy for a month or two doing their own due diligence on whether any of these stocks fit their own needs.


      PS: Continue to short CMG!!!!! It will be under $200 within a year!!!!

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 2 Replies to argoalpuche
      • Know one cares about your drivel

        Sentiment: Buy

      • CMG is not going below 200 anytime soon. As indicated by recent strength, 230-260 is as low as this is going. Disagree with you there, its already down 40% from all time highs. All they have to do is increasing prices by $0.25 and everything will be much better on margins.

        Argoal what PPS was REGN when you first got shares? Just curious how early in the game you got in.

        Those stocks you mentioned seem decent, maybe ZIOP has most potential there.

        OGXI: 188m mkt cap, 90m cash, Phase 2 Prostate cancer - (could see MDVN type move)
        GALE: 120m mkt cap, 40m cash, Phase 3 HER2 Breast cancer Immunity vaccine (ARNA Type move)
        CLDX: Nice portfolio of mAB
        LPTN: 53m mkt cap, 500 mil deal with pfizer. Phase 2 assets for WET AMD (mAB discovery platform)
        CLSN: 300m mkt cap, 23 mil cash, 7 oncology indications, Phase 3 liver cancer due soon.
        INO: 97m mkt cap, Hep C, Flu and many vaccines

        All these small caps listed above have major upside if their drugs work, are approved, and commercial success. Curious to hear your take a look at those. I am currently long GALE, CLSN. Thinking about opening a position in CLDX.

        CLDX looks like it will hit $10 by May or so. They may get their cancer treatment approved without the need for Phase 3.

        I think CLSN can go to $20-30 on impressive data. GALE has probably highest upside of any biotech stock out there. I don't know any other stock that can go from $1.70 to $20+ currently.

        SGEN is intriguing 3B mkt cap with ADC mAB technology. But I don't know how much more it can grow.

        Looking for the next AMGN, REGN, CELG, PCYC, while its in the single digits. They come around once every 10-20 years. I am still long REGN into the sunset, but would be nice to find the next one sometime soon :)

    • Am very long ALXN. Very well managed & excellent pipelines. Has done very well by its orphan drug 'Soliris', and now Asfotase Alfa looks very promising.

    • Any other small cap (

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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