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Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • faosto faosto Feb 11, 2013 2:24 PM Flag

    Regeneron ER

    Rhe wonderful thing for lings on this stock is the tightly wound spring on its price - it wants to pop at any occasion, as today pointed out. I think Eylea sales will continue to impress, and analysts are likely underestimating total sales, which should hit 3 billion in 2015 or 2016. Add to that another 4-5 billion for REGN727, and it's easy to see revenues in the 8 billion range by 2018 on these two drugs alone. If you discount that 30% you get 5.6 billion, and if you multiply that by 4X (which is the multiple that Roche paid for genentech's revenues in 2009), you get a buyout price of 22.4 billion. That's a buyout price of around $235/share. It's going to hit $200+ on its own soon, but I'll certainly take the $235!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Sanofi is being very smart: in 2009 they paid $26 a share to pick up 12 million shares of Sanofi, giving them about 16 million shares total. If they pick up another 12 million to get to 30% ownership, for $180-$190/share, their average basis will be about $110. If they offer $250/share to buyout the company after all of this, they will pay a total buyout price of 23.75 billion. Add debt and subtract cash, and you get around $24 billion. Now, subtract profit from the gain on the 30% owned, or $140/share times 28 million, and you get 3.9 billion, giving them a net price of around $20 billion, only a 25% premium to today's price.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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