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American Capital Mortgage Investment Corp. Message Board

  • xxavatarxx xxavatarxx Jul 2, 2013 12:55 PM Flag

    Economic new of the day

    Wit these kind of head lines.. tapering is on.

    * US Auto Sales Spike in June to Pre-Recession Levels / June auto sales: GM hits a five-year high -- and it's not just trucks
    * US home prices rise in May by most in 7 years
    * US Factory Orders Rose in May on Machinery, Computers

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    • Saw an interview with Alan Blinder and other prominent economists who were skeptical that we would see the kind of growth that would lower unemployment for maybe another year or more. Especially with the sequester, he felt that it was unlikely that we would see more than 1% growth this year, while we need at least 3% growth to see material reductions in unemployment. If he is correct, we may not see any QE3 tapering by the Fed this year, since Bernanke has made clear that QE3 tapering is dependent on reductions in the unemployment figure.

    • Yet the 3.5s are only down 7 ticks and 3.0s down 2 ticks. Up almost a point and a half since the lows on 6/25.

      If the fed moves out we might find there are still buyers of mbs.

      Look at the 10yr, yields have gone down when the QEs have expired, post crisis.

 
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