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American Capital Mortgage Investment Corp. Message Board

  • instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Jul 2, 2013 9:00 PM Flag

    Jobs data - a lot of hype but results likely to be downside surprise.

    "Credit Suisse economists Jonathan Basile said he expects to see 150,000 jobs Friday, and he also has been looking at the pattern of weakness in June. "There seems to be a pattern where there's been downside surprises for 10 of the last 13 years," he said. "We haven't had a materially upside surprise since 1999. 150,000 isn't significantly different than where we were two months ago. it's where the short-term trend is. It reinforces the downshift from the beginning of the year. To us, it's another solid month, but it isn't something that gets markets really in a tizzy about imminent tapering."

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    • Considering resent stream of economic data surprise will be on up side.

    • Saw an interview with Alan Blinder and other prominent economists who were skeptical that we would see the kind of growth that would lower unemployment for maybe another year or more. Especially with the sequester, he felt that it was unlikely that we would see more than 1% growth this year, while we need at least 3% growth to see material reductions in unemployment. If he is correct, we may not see any QE3 tapering by the Fed this year, since Bernanke has made clear that QE3 tapering is dependent on reductions in the unemployment figure.

 
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