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Coldwater Creek, Inc. Message Board

  • taxevader_1999 taxevader_1999 Sep 7, 2006 9:54 PM Flag

    Major Red Flag - Inventory Problems

    Look at the extreme increase in inventory reported last quarter. The amount far exceeds that required to support the increase in sales.

    The company web site has updated the merchandise that is on sale - 70% off. This is IN ADDITION to the normal weekly sale merchandise. I scanned through much of the 350 items on sale and THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITIES in MANY SIZES and colors.

    Huge volume of merchandise at deep discounts and balooning inventory spells MAJOR INVENTORY PROBLEMS.

    http://www.coldwatercreek.com/aspx/OutletGeneric.aspx

    This will lower margins and crush the stock.

    My guess is they made a major stratgic blunder by trying to attract younger customers. Looking at the 70% off merchandise, much is for younger women. These women are not going to shop at CTWR.

    All of the high P/E growths stock eventually blow up --- CHS, JOSB, HANS, WFMI ... next will be CWTR.

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    • Hello Momfor3kids,

      <<Been watching CHK, as we have some ties to that company, and it's starting to fall after a very nice, solid run up.>>

      I�ve held CHK on several occasions, I bought at the $28.00-$29.00 level and would sell after it spiked up 15%.

      I currently have several out-of-favor Natural Gas plays that could rally depending on the winter cold and NG demands, two plays that I don�t mind sitting on are����.
      NGS � Is a small equipment gas services (compression) company.
      PDC � Is a medium size equipment gas services (rigs) company with no debt.

      I�ve also been trading the last two years PTEN and NGAS.

      I�ve traded a small regulated public utility company (Semco Energy � symbol SEN) which sells natural gas to residential, commercial and industrial customers in Michigan and Alaska. It�s currently trading near around $5.80; I would typically buy in the $5.20 range or lower, kind-of-a fun utility play.

      The next two years are predicted to be a great for the Video Gaming companies; they�ve had a slow transitional period with the new Xbox 360 and this fall the new Sony PS3 and Nintendo Wii will be available which will heat the industry up for 2007. I currently have ATVI, THQI and TTWO in my portfolio (9,000 total shares) and recently sold ERTS for a nice 20% spike over the last two months. I typically will trade these after I make 20% and will try to re-establish another position if the stock falls a tad or before the upcoming earnings report. In one account (capital gains friendly), I plan on holding for another year or so. All of these have spiked quite a bit over the last few weeks so you might be selective and wait for a draw back in price. Check out how much (WOW) cash these three have, the VG industry has been slowly increasing the placement of advertising in the video games; this eventually will be very lucrative and help/add with the earnings.

      I�ve had great luck this year with the Gaming (gambling) sector; I�ve held SHFL and GPIC. The RFID (Radio Frequency Identification Device) is going to be a huge boom to the industry for monitoring the flow of chips in a casino and for theft and cheating prevention. Please read about the surge of gaming now happening in Macau (Asia). I presently don�t hold either of these stocks but would like to establish another position in GPIC if the price comes down near $17.00 - $18.00.

      Check out COGT in the Biometric/Tech industry, it�s been hammered the last six months but has several government, state and foreign contracts in the works. It looks cheap to me, what do you think.


      READ�READ...READ + SNOOP�SNOOP�SNOOP = DUE DILIGENCE


      Good luck & go CWTR "Da Creeper"

    • Interesting - I'll look at the video gaming info in a jiff. I've got mixed feelings about oil coming down. I like the price at the pump a lot more than last week, but have some oil/gas income that was finally enough to go out and eat on after several years of very little return. Been watching CHK, as we have some ties to that company, and it's starting to fall after a very nice, solid run up.

      I guess time will tell, 'eh?

    • The substantiating information regarding CC inventory/outlet you�ve provided can unfortunately be intellectually calibrated only by those that our receptive to factual data and not swayed by their present investment position with this holding. Thanks for all the information though, this should be very helpful for all smart investors. We now have breached into the magic zone, the 3 months that lead up to Christmas, there�s a sign post up ahead, and the next stop is the Coldwater Creek Shopping Zone (CCSZ). I think I�ll shop early this year, a CC gift card would be nice for that someone special.
      http://www.coldwatercreek.com/aspx/productlist.aspx?itemSetGroupType=gc

      Oil is going down which means Retail is back in favor (just in time for Xmas) and the tech chart for CC is starting to smoke.
      http://www.tradingday.com/tbs.html?http://quotes.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=CWTR&code=BTDY

      I love these stocks with a long-term predicted growth rate near 30%. Wow, I�ve got to go to the CCSZ for my wife�s birthday present.
      http://www.quote.com/qc/research/anarecs.aspx?symbols=CWTR

      I sold AH on 8/23 but have established another position with CC. If there are any other traders out there, I would suggest you check out the Video Software Gaming companies. I presently hold three companies and will continue to trade them (IN-N-OUT FOR PROFIT) thru 2008.
      http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/techstockupdate/10308023.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

      Good luck

    • No problem! I hope you can snag something you want! :) I next to never buy anything over $14.99 and using a coupon code. If you ever need one, just ask. They typicall have $25 off $100's floating around all the time, except they time them so they won't work during their big 50% off sales.

      Taxes and s/h bump the average price per item up for me a bit (or rather, did on my orders from last week, the first I'd made in ages!) It's a bit frustrating to have ordered $105 worth of items, thus qualifying you for the discount, only to have one $9.99 item be out of stock. They do a little price adjusting, but it's never as good as it should've been.

      Don't know if you go through any affiliate sites before shopping CWC, but www.mypoints.com is good if you do much online shopping at all, and ... oh... shoot. I can't recall the other one. "Shopping" is part of the site name. They give you 2% or 4% rebates on all CWC purchases. Discover Card is apt to have discount codes/links on their website.

      BlueRidge claims she just got 4,200 lbs of CWC from her "supplier." If it is anything other than Coldwater Creek itself doing her supplying, I know they would not be happy. I believe she may've been buying palattes of overrun product at one time, and they weren't too happy about that. It may not've been her... but I think it was.

      Initially, CWC was really vigilant about copyright protection of their photos and text on eBay. You still see some try to use their photos, but not as much as before. There is an eBay seller who likes to pose as their attorney and tries to bully people into taking them off. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Regardless, they are a VeRO member and have the power to shut a seller down for violating copyright... and they do follow through with repeat offenders. First time offenders get emails telling them not to do it again in the future.

      FWIW, CWC sales on eBay are not what they used to be at all, but I don't know that that's an indication of CWC being "down" so much as it is eBay being down all over. Chicos stuff seems to be doing a bit better there than CWC, but in my experience the CWC stuff doesn't really heat up until Octoberish. I need to list a few things just to get my name back out there so when October rolls around, I'll have a few folks already watching my CWC stuff.

    • Thanks for the tip - you really know that web site.

      I love the live chat feature - totally amazing.

    • Yeah, definitely not current stuff. Mine never has been either, but they do still occasionally have things in the Outlet today that I bought three years ago!

      Coffee and food sounds smart! Who can resist? :)

      Btw - if you want something in the outlet that says it is sold out, right-click the thumbnail image and look at the properties. You'll be able to find the item number within the URL of the image. It should have an H, R, or an A, followed by five digits. Just get on live help (if you are using IE - it won't work with Mozilla) and ask if it is available in the size you want. :)

    • She does have a lot of stuff for sale. But not many current items as best as I can tell. As long as she's not stealing the stuff out the warehouse door then it is all good for CWTR.

      What I would say as an investor is that when a brand has an active secondary market like this, it is a sign of brand desireability. People want the CWTR brand. I think this is hard for number crunchers to understand.

      Went to an in store event over the weekend benefiting the Komen Breast Cancer charity. There was a lot of buying. Shoppers showed up early and were very happy to help the cancer project. CWTR also served a breakfast/juice/coffee station too. Great PR.

    • Well... used to be, with their Outlet, that you couldn't search by specific size quite like you can now. Or at least, I knew that just because it only showed one size in stock that often, they maintained an inventory of around eight of any given size beyond what the website would reflect in case of an oversell when two people were placing an order at the same time.

      For instance, if something only showed size Petite Medium available, it was entirely possible that they had up to eight of every other size remaining. If you called in an order, you'd find your size *was* available over the phone... kwim?

      So... I would always run my searches for Dress in All Sizes. It took me awhile to figure out that jackets are easier to photograph and often go for more money. lol

      It wasn't uncommon at all to have 27 pages of dresses to look through. I just now ran such a search, and came up with 13 pages of dresses in all sizes.

      The "350 items!" thing is just a hoax, really. It's a marketing ploy. They don't really have that many. They did on the first day of the sale, but some of them they would only have had a handful of. Also they are offering far more products than they did when I first began my "career" as an avid CWC bargain shopper. They didn't used to have nearly the number of houseware-type items that they appear to have now, such as mixing bowls and holiday-themed jewelry. It's not at all surprising that they have those things left, IMHO, as people are looking to them to fill their clothes closets. I presume they still make money on these side items, but they do seem to end up with a fair number of them to clearance.

      It appears to me that their perfume lines must've flopped. I wondered how they could market scents in a catalog. I loved the Green Tea and stocked up big time when they were clearancing it. Perhaps if they'd been a little further along in the B&M store growth it would've been a better seller. I just don't know.

      The only thing I've wanted to figure out that I never quite could is how www.blueridgewholesale.com acquires her inventory of stuff to re-sell. She told me once, but I honestly think she was full of hot air.

      You are SO right about the outlet stores! Oh, my! Back in the day, I took a shopping trip to the one they have in Lake Ozark, MO, and wow was I disappointed! Turned out to be a tax write-off for me and nothing more! I acquired ONE pair of pants to re-sell at $4.99. Everything else might as well've been marked RETAIL PRICE!! in big red flashing letters!

      They used to have an AWESOME sale they ran several times per year in Sandpoint, but I don't believe they do that anymore. My contact there and I haven't spoken about it recently at all, but I am thinking that once they shifted distribution to West Virginia that they didn't have the inventory available there to do that.

      If you can figure out Blue Ridge's trick, I'm all ears! lol What she told me before just didn't add up at ALL.

    • Look at number of locations on their website. There is only one CWTR store here in Jacksonville FL. There is room for at least 3 more in this city alone. Atlanta, Dallas, Charlotte, and several other large cities also have major room for increase store counts. And yes, new stores can/would be far enough apart so as not to canabalize each other's sales.

    • BEBE and ANN are also higher.

      I have been following CWTR for a long time and have an extensive database of historical discounts in both channels. My database is clear - the discount levels are the highest ever recorded.

      I would not be surprised to see a downgrade in the near future. An analyst on the CC brought up the inventory issue and sounded as concerned as I am that the risk will not pay off.

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