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Coldwater Creek, AŞ Message Board

  • mpalmgren mpalmgren Sep 27, 2006 8:33 PM Flag

    Inventory Gamble - Death of Stock

    My data is showing CWTR inventory gamble is not paying off and will negatively impact margins.

    My analysis is from STORE VISITS.

    I use a statistical modeling technique to derive the level of discounting and estimate gross margins. I began capturing store data in 2001 and estimating margins in 2002. My models have been extremely accurate and have consistently predicted quarterly margins.

    The current data is showing unprecedented discounting which will have significant negative implications for margins.

    I had to laugh at all the responses to my post last night. I get an ebay seller telling me I am wrong and a bunch of other posters who have done absolutely NO store checks.

    Do some homework before you attack me. The truth will eventually come out and by that time the stock will have taken a big hit.

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    • If you can accurately predict what the margin is going to be, then tell us what we can expect for the current quarter.

    • I visit stores up and down the California coast. They are running a $25 off $100 promo right now. Other than that inventory is not marked down in the stores.

      If you are clever, and you have been tracking this since 2001, you should be very rich from this stock. But you don't sound like someone who is concerned about losing his large capital gain.

      As I said before, inventory is high right now, and any problems from it are *not* refected in the Outlet section of the website. If there is to be a problem it will come in future quarters due to failure of sell thru.

    • The store in Harrisburg, PA is going gangbusters! I visit it quite often, plus the one at King of Prussia regularly and others whenever possible. I have NEVER been in a store anywhere, any time of the day, or any day of the week when it was not very very busy. That "research," plus loving the clothing, is why I bought my stock. Their sales folks are exceptional, and I have never been disappointed in anyway in anything I have purchased.

    • Good for you. Why do you need to start another thread? Why not just answer in that thread or where you handed your ass and need a new one to make the exact same point that you got beaten down on before. Anyway, no need to answer, I'm just going to ignore you. This is at least the 3rd time you've posted this garbage without any facts other than "i've done my research" claims backed by nothing substansive except the hope that we're just going to listen to you. Buh-bye.