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Arbor Realty Trust Inc. Message Board

  • df2830 df2830 Nov 4, 2009 12:10 PM Flag

    Anybody think ABR will suffer the same fate

    ..as CT yesterday? That is what is keeping this down right now. I was surprised to see it climb at all this morning, so that was encouraging. If it surprises tothe upside, could be explosive, but if anything like CT, well....not so good.

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    • Could be, but CT was not so bad for long term investors.

      Their books now show NPLs down from $174M to $122.8M, which is only around 5% of assets I believe, they also have $121M in reserves, and $218M in TCE, which works out to $9.52 a share in NTBV, and they only need to come up with $30M to rerepo one loan and their financing is secured through 2011 I believe.

      Doesn´t anyone invest in the fundamentals in these C REITs, or is it all hype and swing traders and short term players?

      If ABR comes in sound capital wise, its NPAs are not too high and it does not take a huge hit to its NTBV, I won´t sweat the daytrades in the thing.

      If ABR comes out of this with

      • 1 Reply to kabtb
      • Didn´t mean to imply that you were investing on hype df, it´s just that I keep watching some of the others that are in really bad shape trade above ones like ABR when the others are far worse and I have to wonder.

        FWIW, I didn´t think the dip yesterday on CT was justified either, it´s well capitalized, its a capital REIT with a history of working itself out of recessions and taking advantage of any recovery and there are signs that commercial RE may be turning up or at least bottoming.

        Geez, what do these guys selling want, a sudden return to earnings when that would mean having NPL ratios that are scarey?

        The ones who try gimmicks like that will never get financing with too many NPLs on the books, there are a few Capital REITs that tried managing like that, and while they are trading above this one they could give out at any time. Fundamentally their capital position and NPL ratios are not sound. They will be paying a lot higher rates on loans and capital than the ones who are sound in such things, even if they did get that far.

        GLTAL.

    • The gods tell to stap yourself in for a nice ride up.

 
ABR
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