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Arbor Realty Trust Inc. Message Board

  • srsmgja srsmgja Jun 27, 2013 10:42 AM Flag

    Selling Pressure

    The selling pressure on Abr shares has been quite impressive. I noted today that the short interest on Abr has barely changed over the last 4 months. So all this selling is from existing or new recent shareholders dumping their shares at seemingly any price. Yet from all public statements and financials, Abr's fundamentals appear to be improving steadily.

    Just in the 1st month of this quarter, Abr originated over 100M of new loans. From the stated yield and lever I calculate an additional 5M annual revenue gain, almost 3x the amount needed to cover another 4 cent annual gain in the divi next month. I guess/estimate an additional 50M in loan originations during the quarter to offset the ave run off for the quarter. Assuming no disasters (large write off in the legacy portfolio) I expect the divi to be at 56-60 cents by year end reporting in Feb. That would translate into a yield of 9.5 - 10 % based on current PPS. Lastly, Abr is currently trading at a large discount (approx. 40%) to its book value, providing a good cushion even through management has stated that their legacy difficulties have been largely resolved.

    Sentiment: Buy

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