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Masco Corporation Message Board

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  • nick.mach nick.mach Mar 23, 2009 7:26 PM Flag

    Back on track, maybe!!

    And where were you at Masco's nadir?

    I was battling the short hordes.

    You, pop your head in, when its' up!

    Good Luck

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    • Nicky,

      i'm still here and it's funny how many of the "strong buys" come out after the stock is up 100% from the lows. I maintain my view that this stock will trade below $3 this year. The housing market is still extremely weak and if you parse the new starts data and existing home sales data which both are being viewed as extremely positive, you'll understand that this data is far from re-assuring. The new start data was largely driven by multi-family homes that are either "for rent" complexes (hardly good for housing market) or more disconcerting they are large condo units which would be "for sale" which just adds more inventory to the system. AS for the sales in February, it is partially a timing issue. December Pending Home Sales were up ~5% and there is usually a 2 month lag between this # and the actual sales #. If you look at November Pending Home Sales, the figure was down 4%. The actual sales # in Jan '09 -- negative 5%. January's pending home sales # was -8% and new home sales were -10% for January so I'm anticipating March existing home sales to be down pretty significantly yoy and sequentially. we'll know on April 23rd.

      also, distressed home sales were 40% of sales in February and inventory increased 5% in February despite the stronger sales #. Bottom line, the market is still extremely weak, the economy is deteriorating further and MAS is an over-levered company that can't cut costs fast enough to offset the decline in demand. you should do yourself a favor and exit your stock as you've been given a gift by the recent rally. Also, do you really think we've tested the market lows and all the bad news has been priced into the market? The most recent rally has been driven by positive sentiment from govt initiatives (i.e., private-public investment alliance) that have a long way to go before being implemented. the reality is the Fed hasn't started the printing presses yet, we haven't seen close to the full impact of job losses and further economic weakening and companies haven't reported 1q09 results and outlooks...

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