Yep! Thats right folks.Only three more days of tax selling then we make the turnaround of the century.Since Oct. the stock has not been this low for at least 5 years.That means anybody who bought the stock in the past has a tax loss.In mho 80-90% of the sellers in the last 2 mos.sold for tax purposes and it had nothing to do with valuation.They only need to wait 31 days until they can buy it back.Jan 2 is off to the races. Any ideas on what the true vakue is 5,6,7 ,8 ?
The one year analyst estimate average is $5.00. However, as others have already noted, this stock should be trading much higher. The real key is if the Rollins family wants to continue this operation as their hobby, or if they want to maximize all the shareholders value. If the latter is the case the breakup or real value is closer to $10.
They have had six years and i'm afraid it looks like the old boys club. Protect the jobs of the guys that have been running it. I can't believe the Rollins' are happy though as they were sellers in the 6-7 area last year. At this price a stock for stock deal would be nice. It is hard to believe they will just let it sit there but some 80+ year old friend of the family basically is trustee for 52% of the voting power. Nothing ever really needs to happen unfortunately. If the midwest tracks just plunged into an abyss of even worse operating results that might be enough to get something going. I talked to the CFO a few weeks back and he said they had taken their lumps with the midwest tracks adn something had to be done. They definitely don't care about the minority shareholders..but it is very cheap indeed.
I looked up what TRK paid for New Hampshire last January, $340 million. I think Dover is a much more valuable location being in a commercial district compared to NHIS in the middle of woods. Apply that to valuation of DVD and you can get $9-$10 for Dover alone and give the 3 other tracks away for free.
What would a real estate investor pay for 4 properties that bring in $85 million in revenue per year? Even if you factor in high expenses, most properties sell at 4 to 8 times gross revenues. Here again the stock would be worth 5x what is selling for now.
It is hard to say but Cibelli with Marathon that owns a ton has said he thinks 11-12. The management is entrenched and they have all sorts of questionable non-compete payments etc that would make a takeover a bit more expensive. How silly is it to have non compete payments for executives to keep them from going to the competition or setting up another track when 3 of the four tracks you own lose money. The low stock price and harder times for their casino operation- separate company, will make a sale more likely I think. ISCA or TRK are the logical buyers. Financing is the key but what i'd love to see is a stock deal. That would be sweet- no tax to pay until a sale. Some insiders have been sellers in the 6 area and I can't believe even with their totally unfair dual class ownership that they like the idea of this thing trading for the cost of a cup of coffee. That said maybe they do better this year- gas will be a lot lower than last summer and they got hit by fans cutting back on outings.