I have famously predicted MILL at $8 in December. Here's why...
1. Cold weather makes oil harder to extract. This means less oil will be making it to Cushing, and the resultant lower supply will increase the WTI published price. The price is already creeping up, and I believe it will push past $100 per barrel. That creates a psychological ripple effect on stock prices for the entire oil and gas sector.
2. Another good quarterly report. With oil prices staying above $70 all year, MILL has realized a good return on investment. Another good quarterly report will be proof that the sky is indeed not falling. That will shake off some apprehension about the stock price and attract more retail investors.
3. The big rig will be up on the platform! With pictures and everything! Plus, they will begin the process of reworking, if they haven't already. Then begins a series of announcements about increased production. MILL will be a "hot" stock again, as the obvious extreme discount makes it irresistable to institutions. Shorts will have to get out for at least half a year!
4. Other news in Cook Inlet. Escopeta has begun using a jack-up rig. And Apache, America's eleventh largest oil producer, is exploring using seismic technology all around MILL's position in Cook Inlet. Whatever they produce will need to processed somewhere. Kustatan production facility, perhaps? Not too far a stretch since a slide show David Hall gave last year shows that Apache's employees are already using the Kustatan as a base camp!
5. The "lawsuits" will fade away to memory, only to show up years later as either dismissed or settled out of court.
I'm a little nervous that it won't hit $8 in December, but I am standing behind my belief that it will hit $12 in June.
(pvxbasher don't forget to chime in. This time, try to ham it up a bit more. I dig your whole "Yoda" thing, too.)
Doinokyesterday; You've got to wish in one hand ,and squat in the other.Let us know which one fills up first.The price of Mill will depend on oil prices, production increases, and possibilities of future earnings.If Mill went positive p/eit could soar.
I agree that there is potential. Doing some dd the oil is about 26API gravity, low sulfer, 190 degrees temp and ~5000psi. The Redoubt field has low permeability, so should be drilled horizontal like a Bakken well. Forest screwed up and pumped too aggressivily, well bore became water flooded. Believe that there is sufficient cash flow to continue operations, depletion write down kills profit using GAAP acounting. Taking out the depletion, you find about a million a month free cash flow based on continuing production 1000+BOPD. As per the last 10Q will cost about 40 million to get Ospray platform fully opeational. Again I see the most critical part of this is how the well is engineered when they hit the oil bearing sand.
How can anyone have faith that this company will achive anything as 2 months ago they stated that the TN drill rig would be up and running very soon??
Will someone go to Kmart and buy some antifreeze to help MILL out!!!!
This is an oil(193 wells operating) and gas(195 wells operating) co,not necessarily an oil exploration co.Income is steady and the stock is drastically underpriced.Not dependant on new discoveries.Well funded by $100 million debt facility.It will not shut down if there is a 1 or 2 day setback.... sort of like a failure of a lemonade stand.We have 2 weeks worth of normal trading volume that will need to be covered,all in short sales.Those shorties will have to cover painfully and buy in at a higher price. The 200day moving average for crude oil is $95/barrel.In Alaska ,expect reworked wells to come first.New wells are planned in an area surrounded by newly discovered fields.Alway fire 3 types of employees #1) the "sad sack" #2) the pessimist 3#) the unbeliever(no vision) #4) combos of the above 3 #5) the best friend of the previously mentioned groups (fire one month later if they dont shape up mentally,but torture them first to see if they'll quit).
Dec 3 2011 will be 3dQ report on mill (ended sept30th,2011),a big profit will cause a jump in stock values and stock prices,next the shorts will cover and the price could spike.This senario has been negated again, and again,by stock traders panicing selling.Commodity stock & commodities have generally kept good long term value,long term trend is currency devaluation due to excess dollar printing,muni bonds pay p/e of 50 years earnings(ut oh!inflation!),stock trading isnt for everyone...maybe just trust it all to Madoff and take a long vacation?Eh Geniuses?
You find some of the best articles. It only makes sense that energy prices will rise - but if that article is correct with $150 in the short term -- WOW! is all that I can say. Glad I'm in an oil stock with a future.