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Miller Energy Resources, Inc. Message Board

  • colecoman1 colecoman1 Feb 8, 2013 9:50 AM Flag

    All is well with Apollo

    They let them borrow the next $15,000,000. They already took out $5m. The next $10,000,000 is there, ready to be utilized when they need it.

    Apollo wants a piece of the pie, so Apollo put a $2m fee if they actually don't borrow the $10m.

    The covenants were pushed back to a more realisitic timeline, considering the delays to the delivery of the rig.

    This shows taht progress is continuing to be made by MILL's Alaska division. The Tennessee production was certified to be a real value to MILL, as it is definitely included in the production covenants. So any idea that TN and AK will be seperated is gone. Wasn't a good idea to start with. This company needs to grow, not shrink.

    All in all, this fact, and the fact that iHub is now actually pumping the stock, make me think good things are ahead next week. Now that they have source gas for the Osprey, and full cooperation with Apollo, what's to stop this stock?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Stock has been locked down from delays over the last 6 months. Even with the gas and tennessee wells coming online it's still under $4. I'm trying to figure out why. Shorts still have some ability to keep the share price down since the volume is so low now. A string of good news is the only thing that is going to make us money, which we are going to get within the next couple of weeks. This stock is so undervalued from the beating it has taken from the shorts.

      • 3 Replies to m36lambert1980
      • richard_mantz@sbcglobal.net richard_mantz Feb 9, 2013 10:17 AM Flag

        Whenever there is this large an increase in the production forecast (for the size of the company) the market will attempt to convert the stock from a concept stock to a stock based upon earnings projections. I believe that is what is happening here. No one is really upset with the stock, its just a little murky right now as to when the earnings will hit because there are some temporary delays muddying the picture. Give the stock a few months for things to become clearer, most likely this summer, so that projections can be made and we probably need a year or two operations on the first few wells and the stock should stabilize quite nicely.

        I believe that the shorts are arguing that profits are a little further off than the longs believe and that is creating the price swings that we are seeing. This is basically a trading opportunity for people who window is under a year or six months depending upon your view.

        Right now we really only have the production history on one Osprey well, and while it is quite good and very much above average, it is still only one well, as the onshore wells are small, but the again the history there is quite good, due to the conservative operation of the wells, this also bodes well for the Tennessee wells. This company will get more out of the field at less cost than the competition because they are willing to give up some cash flow up front and the lender seems to agree with this strategy. Forrest never went for that strategy.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • The flip side is when every short buys back in to cover.There will not be alot of available shares for a discounted price ,so shorts can lose alot more than their original reverse invesment.They went short because a Seeking Alpha(Jan 8,2013) tale of Woe related to Mill financing ,credit limits , and impending default with Apollo.Shorts do not necessarily read the message boards or follow Mill headlines.Shorts should not go short on one stock alone ( better with an index)because they are liable for the changing dynamics & big turn arounds.Shorting exploration & rehabilitation activities in a time of rising oil prices is inconcievable and completly braindead.Happy Black History month to my Ace #$%$ Boon Mint-Dawg.When will Obama release the new jobs?

      • After reading the complete filing, I agree that Apollo isn´t a problem right now. There are some positives reading on these files: RU-3 still alive, 2.2K is the first target at April, a realistic target. No problem of cash until end of June, when everybody expects that all these wells will be online.

        The pps is another thing. What kind of news can we expect to pop pps up? RU-1/ RU-7 Imo is priced in. Maybe RU-3, but not enough Otter is a dream yet. The permit related with the pipeline is still pending. It was submitted at August/12 and it seems to be frozen so far. The line could take 3 months after the first well is ready, to say the least. So, I don´t count either Otter or Olsen Creek. They didn`t submit a pipeline permit for Olsen, so it is a desk proyect yet.

        Volume was dried with preferreds. We have two stocks quoting now, and the guys interested on manipulating pps, pump and sell high probably are involved with preferreds. I expect they won´t suscribe a new offering soon, because of it will take more money away of commons´s table.

        So, I don`t expect shorts will cover soon, unfortunately. Except, of course, some surprising agreemente related with the pipeline crossing Cook Inlet, or a big discovery of oil in one of the wells.

 
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