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Mercury General Corporation Message Board

  • cupiditasradix cupiditasradix Apr 29, 2002 3:33 PM Flag

    Thoughts on the CC...

    The CC was uneventful but confirmed the excellent job MCY is doing managing its insurance activities this leg of the cycle.

    Company wide premiums are on target to pass the $500/million in Q4 '02 and EPS should comfortably break above $3.00 in '03. Policy count is up 3% QoQ and should see double digit growth for the year.

    Auto business in CA is looking strong and rate increases are just beginning to flow throug the P/L with several more to come.

    MCY is well positioned in CA homeowners' market as it has clearly addressed the "Toxic Mold Issue" head-on.

    Other states are looking better, with FL and TX quite encouraging. Mgmgt described the underwriting situation in these states as being "tight and getting tighter".

    So MCY should be able to do some real "cherry picking" in adding policyholders, and be set for a stellar 2003.

    As a final crystal ball gaze, it is not inconceivable that MCY will pass the $3 billion premium level in 2006, where EPS would exceed $5.00. That would probably put the shares at $80-$100 in '05, which would be a good time to exit for those who bught in the '00-'01 doldrums, particularly as it would probably be the peak of this insurance upcycle...

    P.S. By the way, GJ did not feel unduly concerned about either Insurance Commissioner, although he wisely said "what they say before the election and what they do in office are often rather different" or words to that effect. I guess as he has over $1bln in MCY shares on the line, we can take some comfort!

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