I still held on to about 25% of my holdings in Teva in an old 401K I have. I had really been debating the last several weeks about what to do. I had an opportunity to offset Teva against some big gains in MO & SLB or take the gains, pay taxes on them and hope Teva rebounds next year. I chose the former and I will give my reasoning.
I realize Jeremy Levin probably really threw in the kitchen sink with the 2013 numbers and those numbers will probably be easily met, but that was too huge a haircut to keep me interested right now. It tells me Levin and Co. really have their work cut out for themselves and this turnaround will take quite a long time. Even if the dividend is raised substantially next week along with additional stock buyback news I have a hard time believing there will be significant share appreciation. To keep investors happy you have to show growth and right now Teva has just announced they are not. As I said, I am still holding on to about 25% of my Teva shares, but I sold the bulk today. I would rather start a new year with more cash in the hopes of investing in something else, rather than holding something which is a long term turnaround story. Max, are you out there listening? I believe you wanted me to tell you when I would sell. It was not an easy decision, but I believe I made the right one at least for me.
I will still be on this board as I continue to hold a position, and I wish my friends (particularly Max, Clapper, Tex, Atty, etc.) the best. I hope for all of you on this board it rockets up next week with the meeting, all the best guys!
Congradulations CD. Many are missing the point you made ie, "I had an opportunity to offset Teva against some big gains in MO & SLB". Regardless of the outcome I think you made the right decision for your portfolio. I did not have the luxury of offsetting losses in a similiar fashion. As a result I am prepared to hold for years or cut losses at a time when I have a gain to offset. In the mean time I will collect dividends..
Glad to see you still hold some shares and will participate in future board discussion.
gl to you CD
Good Afternoon Aurum,
I always enjoy your posts, thank you for the kind words. I was lucky enough to have plenty of time to go back and forth in my mind and think about every possible scenario re: my Teva shares and what to do. I am not a "babe in the woods" when it comes to investing, nor do I have an ego which does not allow me to admit when I have made a mistake. As a matter of fact I hope after tomorrow's news the stock rockets to $50/share.
My feelings for Teva have not changed in the least. I still believe it is a great company, which unfortunately became lazy and complacent under the former regime. Now it is Dr. Levin's job to right the ship. After hearing his 2013 forecast he has quite a task ahead of him, in my opinion. The deciding factor for me was the severity of the haircut earnings are projected to take for 2013. While I do believe he set the bar purposely low I have to assume those are the numbers and I have to take him at his word and am doing so. I did expect him to come down on 2013, but not as much as he did. This tells me they do not expect any major drug launches in the near term and Teva has fallen way behind the likes of WPI & MYL. While Levin may be the right man for the job he cannot turn this company around overnight and I feel at this juncture it is best for me to move my money elsewhere. Besides, I had a golden opportunity to not only free up more money, but to keep a nice chunk in Teva.
My feeling is 2013 is going to be a VERY challenging year for our economy. I believe the stock market is currently way overvalued and needs to come down. There is just way too many headwinds at the moment to justify these levels in my opinion. I am not even speaking about the fiscal cliff, because I believe there are more dangerous obstacles ahead which this country is not addressing. Nobody wants to tackle the debt issue, and that is where the big concern should be. Obama counts on the public not being in the know so he can be up in popularity. He talks about the top 2%, the fairness issue and of course the have nots out there jump on the bandwagon and say "oh he's right, he is all for us". The fact remains households have seen their wealth shrink, more are now on government assistance than ever before and the Latinos and African Americans are worse off now under Obama than before. I am not in the 2% bracket so I don't personally care, but can anyone on this board tell me with a straight face that even if you taxed that top level at 100% it would do anything to address the debt. This man just wants to kick the can down the road. If he didn't he would put forth a plan to address the entitlement problem which has exploded out of control.
By the way Hanukah started this past weekend, A Happy one to all my Jewish friends on this Board!
Hi-I have read some others posters and i concur with most.But i respect your decision , this is tough i know but also i think you somehow got too emotional or at least you desestimate some clear chart signs that Teva was showing upside momentum ;for instance a golden cross and an inverted hammer candlestick...just to say two.
Mine is not the best of strategy and i have really lost some rallies by selling too soon but perhaps next time perhaps you could try a stop-loss or even better a stop-limit instruction instead.
Probably you know more than me on this stuff CD but well !just comments....
GL to u. and the rest of the board.
cd - no one knows at this point whether this was a wise move to sell - just when things look better - but as you and i well know we have been at this juncture many times just to witness more downside - after 7 years in teva i cannot say that i have been entirely satisfied but perhaps not entirely disappointed either - some stocks have done much worse - i actually bought some more 2 days ago but i guess my modest 1600 shares is little in comparison to the likes of yourself and atty - but that's 100% of my portfolio ! strange but true ! shabat shalom - your friend in israel
Sentiment: Strong Buy
clap, i feel for you. i am way overweight teva, and bought more on recent dip below 38.
but i once, and atty more often, gave you obvious advice: don't put all your eggs in one basket. i understand you holding what you've got hoping to to scrape out without a loss. but buying more now is a risk you specifacally shouldn't take. downside is not big but exists, upside could come anytime soon or a long wait. again i am way overweight in teva. i'm at loss on the bulk of longer term except the recent purchase, I have liquidated near to all my other holdings, for a year end cleanup and in anticipation of a rough ride and better oppurtunities for israeli stocks short term. teva is less susceptable to israeli politics etc. but you must wind down from 100% teva if this is indeed your position and main retirement resource. no question. take profit on recent purchase as soon as you can and wind down no later than after 1st qtr result 2013 regardless of lack of no s/p recovery before then. if s/p doesn't hike before then i think teva will appreciate but as a long term holding with dividend for comfort.... my specific teva posts and questions are not as pro as many on this board, but i'm afraid you base your holding on fear and sentiment not analysis. no aspersion intended. on the books teva looks good. but the best of analysts are guessing future earnings and ability to absorb the many mergers last decade. teva is not the company it once was - it is vast global and hard to manage. if the very talented management of yore was right in turning to a boundless spree of m&a's is yet to be seen. but they are no longer steering the ship. all the best to you.
teva is not a turn around play, you should have held, are you against making money? funny but over and over I watch people sell winners, long term holdings are five - ten years. This will be at 50 soon. Why would you not just put in a stop.
Agreed about a stop-I did a silly,emotional chickening out.I still have a sizable postion,and yes,I've been on board for five-ten years on average..My other major position is far better in my opinion than the 10% than you're envisioning on Teva,so I shifted some weight onto that horse for the timebeing.
CD and Gran, Your moves both make sense. Makes no sense doing donuts in the kayak while this stock is straightening out. The reason the stock trades this low has been exposed. Even with trust in Levin, its a daunting task to right the ship at a multi-billion $-worldwide corp. The stock can be monitored while all this is going on. TEVA will undoubtedly receive some tax/loss pressure during the month of dec. I'm encouraged by the behavior of it recently. Figure that's all a play on Levin and the upcoming conference. Maybe it finds a new multiple. Certainly doesn't suggest new found growth which must be apparent for any real nice gains in price as we expected. I'm going to hang on eating my spamburgers :) for now. Don't ask me why. Good Luck to all you guys.
good luck ! i know very little about the stock market but i have learned that no one - even the best analysts - know the future - often laymen do as well on the stockmarket as knowledgable people - in many ways it is a casino - i would have waited - no guarantees of course - for more of a stock rise - 2 days i actually added to my position - but cd max atty - hope to see u in this board !
Sentiment: Strong Buy
CD, I agree with your logic. I sold all mine a few weeks ago. But the shares are cheap and I will monitor but there has to be a strong catalyst than just being cheap. Some stock is cheap for a reason.
ps I held for the better part of 2 years..