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The Coca-Cola Company Message Board

  • SterlingChap SterlingChap Mar 1, 2002 4:18 PM Flag

    New Shorts

    OPEN SHORTS:
    NO stock shorted.
    Bought 10 May $45 Puts at $1.25
    Bought 20 May $45 Puts at $0.80
    Bought 20 May $45 Puts at $0.70

    OPEN LONG POSITION:
    None.

    Overall, NETT SHORT Tracking 50 shares, contracts, or whichever multiple (but of these proportions) you choose!

    Stay lucky,
    Chap

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    • that makes sense...sounds like "a plan"..focus on DOW stocks...KO definitely been a good short for a while now....just ask smoky...

      a list..a plan..(make your own luck)....study the stock for a while..learn the pattern ..see how how it trades etc etc etc

      later...peace

    • Good question!
      Why indeed short KO and not one of a host of others....?

      First, With thousands to choose from, I can't monitor them all!
      Second, I only manage to keep my averages up by keeping a close eye on about 20 stocks.
      For about a year, KO has been one of them.....
      Third, and for me quite importantly, KO is a Dow component.
      I like that!
      My highest win ratio is with Dow Components.
      Quite why is too big to post here. I'll pose some facets and questions here separately some time. It'll be interesting to see if others have similar suspicions to mine!

      So, in summary, for reasons of sensibility, I restrict my activities to quite a small "pool" of stocks. Nothing gets in (or out) of my pool easily. I keep a watching brief on all sorts of things that may generate + or - impact to them.
      I am essentially a globalist in outlook. Much more impressed with the fact the World is in dire trouble economically right now than that maybe KO is overvalued and risking an SEC investigation.
      So, once happy that I've got the big picture correct, I then look for minnows that are more likely to suffer as Reality strikes home.
      KO is most definitely one, IMHO.
      But, as comfort to those of a Long disposition....I've been wrong before!

      Stay lucky,
      Chap

    • RE: Little things like "this is the bottom" - declared daily throughout 2001.
      "there's no Recession" - declared daily from March to August 2001.
      "Strong Buy" - on almost everything for 2 years as Markets declined horribly. (Were THEY really buying???? Enron???)

      ADD: (to the above) mary meekers call on ebay other day...she must have a lot of stock to unload


      i agree...i get some of my biggest chuckles watching the experts on cnbc fox etc...

      the scariest one of all..cramer is bullish

      the DOW appears to be the only thing holding up at this point (relatively speaking) (13%drop)...but my "guess" is we see 7400 before we see 11,800....

      none the less..there are plenty of stocks going UP ( i have yet to short anything..except on paper (practicing, learning)it's seems almost as easy as throwing darts was on the long side before the nasdaq topped out)

      guess i'll ask you the same question i asked smoky...why short KO...or buy intc as far as that goes.....why not have honed in on something like hgsi (hindsight now i know) most of the rides out of that now i think (the best part anyway)...altho 15 --12 is possible)


      later...yes,stay lucky..

    • I think I got the point anyway....
      Unless I feel that all my criteria are fully met, I wait.......TIME being my biggest, single ENEMY! You'd be surprised how many investors (gamblers!) consistently overlook it.

      So, ALL of my plays are entered into with a strong spirit of optimism.
      It's just that experience and established probabilities temper the "good vibes" (and it's a good thing!) into realisation that there have been LOTS of such occasions before, and no matter HOW good one might feel at placement time, 1/2 STILL fall by the wayside!

      On the KO play right now....I'm very mindful that there's a concerted effort (and it's Worldwide) right now to "conjure up" the feeling that the Recession is behind us.
      I'm as sure as I can be that it's not, BTW.
      But that won't stop the big power boys doing their all!
      In this respect, I tend to think of the Establishment as "THEM". They are out to get my money, via the usual hype and attempts to defocus us from everything except what they WANT us to focus on.......(It works for me!)
      Little things like "this is the bottom" - declared daily throughout 2001.
      "there's no Recession" - declared daily from March to August 2001.
      "Strong Buy" - on almost everything for 2 years as Markets declined horribly. (Were THEY really buying???? Enron???)

      On the wave of expected (hopefully, short-term) opttimism that might well ensue, ALL stocks can get hyped. KO included.
      I might consider some "insurance" against such a rally via a long position (options) on somethinglike INTC. Call it a "Mixed Play" for want of a better term.

      (I consider INTC solid as a rock, but hamstrung by the Recession right now. Any sustained bullishness would be nearly certain to express itself, faster and stronger, in a hike on INTC stock.)
      But that's on the "mull it over" agenda...not set in concrete yet.

      Stay lucky,
      Chap

    • would it make any sense to buy some calls on the other side..just in case you are wrong?

      better yet...just tell me you are rarely...or hardly ever..wrong

      • 1 Reply to BearTrader3
      • OK.
        I hope I've "made my own luck" as always, via homework and screening other opinions.

        But there's never a guarantee of profit.
        You can VERY EASILY be right with your assessment, but WRONG with the Market reaction in respect of TIME.
        (Never forget the time element: the SINGLE most important aspect of ANY play, IMHO)

        I keep a record of all my plays (invaluable and essential) and have a 50/50 win/lose record over the past few years.
        (Take it from me...anyone who tells you that they win MORE <<times>> than they lose is either truly exceptional or lying!)
        But profits from those plays that win are substantially in excess of losses from those that lose.
        And THAT's (I feel ) the key to it all.
        You HAVE to accept that you're going to get things WRONG a lot of the time, and remember that there's ALWAYS "another day, another opportunity" to offset those occasions. Whilst statistically attempting to improve the win ratio is good, and works, EXPECTING any individual play to be, for CERTAIN, in the "win" category is a one-way ticket to oblivion....

        If there were such a thing as "luck" (and there isn't IMHO!) I'd steer clear of KO because I already did well from downside on it LAST time it was in the $50 region....
        The superstitious would feel spooked that it was "lady luck's turn this time".....

        Balderdash.

        Last time KO was at $50, I felt very sure that it was more likely headed towards $40 than $55.

        Nothing's changed. The doubts about KO harden.

        So....here's hoping that events unfurl to my expectations!

        Stay lucky (ie. make your OWN "luck"),
        Chap

    • you're going to make a little killing..if you're right...

      more power to ya

 
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