QWAK,alph,You got THAT right, I am NOT Homer Simpson but some times I am inclined to WONDER if YOU are RELATED to HIM or perhaps RESEMBEL old Homer.
When you shave in the morning IS this who looks back at you?
HE HE HE,just being ME!
QWAK,I came across this quote, at first it sounded just like alpha but when I looked closer it was from Homer Simpson. ;)
"You never know when an old calendar might come in handy! Sure, it's not 1985 right now, but who knows what tomorrow will bring?"
TE HE HE
Many of the housing purchases made in the past half dozen years are simply rentals, not purchases. The bank owns the home and rents it to the person living there through a no money down, sometimes interest only, monthly loan payment. It is a disgrace to call it a mortgage. In actuality, it is subsidized renting because the 'rent' is tax deductible. Watch what happens whenever the next recession hits or interest rates keep climbing. it doesn't take much to implode a housing market. Have any of you lived through a housing implosion?
QWAK,Bear,The part that I failed to mention is HOW all that will likely back up like a pluged up SUER in to the STOCK MARKET and REALY stink it up!
All the other times things went SOUTH there were a lot LESS average Joes in the market, THEN they had some savings set aside. TODAY none have savings IF they have any money it is in the STOCK MARKET almost no one has any thing safely put away for a hard patch!
What has been happening for the last 5 years is a LOT of quiet selling by the BIG GUYS as they slip out the BACK DOOR leaving a lot of people who should NEVER have been in the "BIG CASENO" holding the BAG of stock shares the SMART MONEY sold them as they were SKINING OUT with the CREAM off the TOP!
A lot of that REFI money has been coming in to the stock market the last fiew years from average Joes who took out the equity in their homes and put a big piece of in in to STOCKS!
They are going to get SCREWED from BOTH ENDS and will be left holding the BAG mostly full of DEBT that will get a lot harder to PAY!
BTW: You just GOT to wonder what that old BEAR will be thining when HE wakes up from the tranqulisers. HE HE HE, Like Rip Van Winkel! "How the HELL did I wind up HERE!" :)
RE-- QWAK,Bear,That also does not even begin to adress the REFI that has been going on so that a high % of homes bought even 10 or 20 or more years ago have been drained of virtualy all equity!
>>yes..very true duckie..agreed..good point!!
RE-- no one told alpha yet...i would venture a guess it hasn't popped in AZ yet...ans so far i don't see anysigns of a pop in jax..or here on jekyll either..<in fact local realtor (just his jekyll office) has no listings..all sold..he's begging for listings...
i suppose the real question is when..and then how much of a drop off in prices
alph has a point tho on those that bot a few yrs ago..IF they didn't do a bunch of cash out re-fi's
PS..i saw them pullin that bear out from under the porch on TV earlier this evening
QWAK,Bear,That also does not even begin to adress the REFI that has been going on so that a high % of homes bought even 10 or 20 or more years ago have been drained of virtualy all equity!
What alpha sees as a STRONG ECONOMY has to a great extent been financed by barrowing on homes that will be worth less than they can be sold for a year or two from now.
This is not to mention that with out all the REFI money being pumped in ware will the economy be in a year or two? It shure WON'T be comong from all the PHONEY GOV. job numbers becuse a high % were short term GOV. created jobs and MOST of the actual new jobs have been LOW PAY not in manufacturing because that has been moved out of country!
Banking was a high point for jobs but NOW even that is being OUT SOURCED as the big banks like JPM and CITY etc. are shifting to INDIA for cheeper labor!
Pollyanna was GLOOM and DOOM compared to alphas ROSE COLORED GLASSES perspective!
The fact is HOUSING has already POPED but no one TOLD alpha,at least no one HE would listen to!
RE: It is very important though to see these loans in relation to the actual increase in the underlying properties. Simple example: Adam Smith buys SFR in 2002 for 200K at 10% interest. Smith loses job at beginning of 06 and cant pay mortgage payments of piti of 2K. Smith paid nothing down and his mortgage is interest only, so he owes the entire 200K. Smith is forced to sell. Must nearly give it away for 400K. Poor shcmuck makes 200K fiat dollars. Cries all the way to the bank.
>> yes..obviously....but i think..or do believe it's those who bot in 05 who will be the ones most in trouble....IF all that comes to pass....AND especially if they really couldn't afford it to begin with.....
>saw somethin other day where martin zweig was trying to sell his NYC penthouse or apt or whatever it is for 70 or 80 mil....think it said he paid 20 for it...obviously if it drops to 40-50 before he can dump it...he'll still be ok too...
>> i know of many prperties in jax that in the very late 80s-early 90's were selling for aprox 50 thou...today there selling for 120-125...my question is..who are the dummies buying say 75-80 thou junk houses for 120....frightening (and i assure you those people aren't paying cash..maybe 1 or 2)
Bear... No polyana here. Don't doubt that we could see increase in default rates. So nothing educatoinal there. Not really anything I wasn't aware of respecting the non-prime mortgages or the non-prime instruments.
It is very important though to see these loans in relation to the actual increase in the underlying properties. Simple example: Adam Smith buys SFR in 2002 for 200K at 10% interest. Smith loses job at beginning of 06 and cant pay mortgage payments of piti of 2K. Smith paid nothing down and his mortgage is interest only, so he owes the entire 200K. Smith is forced to sell. Must nearly give it away for 400K. Poor shcmuck makes 200K fiat dollars. Cries all the way to the bank.