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  • azalphainvestor azalphainvestor Mar 8, 2007 11:07 AM Flag

    Gold v S&P

    Not that anyone who posts here has an agenda, but has anyone else noticed that gold and the S&P seem to be traveling in lock step of late. Maybe someone can explain then how one is a dead cat bounce and the other is recovering gang busters:


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    • "Silver is a very small narrow market"

      Why doesn't one of the big fund managers or billionaires corner the market and control the world silver?

    • QWAK,This is not the time to GRAB for MORE but rater to PROTECT as much as you can both physical GOLD and SILVER let you LOCK in so you can't FALL so far like a mountain climber does, so IF he falls the safty line will catch him.

      Free climbing with out SAFTY ropes is how most people live today just a pay check away from a fall they may never live to recover from and be impoverished for the rest of their lives.,0,1073021.story?coll=bal-oped-headlines

      Saving in HARD CURRENCY even small amounts will help when the FIAT falls fast!

      the DUCK

    • QWAK,bush,If you make that BET and put a lot of your FRNs in to it YOU will LOSE!

      The numbers are there to back it up and PAPER SILVER has been seting the price for a long time, NOT normal market forces, the number of SHORT SILVER contracts is HUGE and mostly from just a hand full of indivigual traiders!

      All it would take would be a BIG player taking DELIVERY like Buffett did and the price will explode! Silver is a very small narrow market and that tends to AMPLIFY moves.

      Physical SILVER is POOR MANS GOLD it is STILL incredably CHEEP and once it is in YOUR POSESION it is TRUE SAFE SAVINGS that the GOV. and BANKERS can't ROB from you and will ALWAYS have VALUE and likely MUCH HIGHER VALUE in the future!

      It aint about geting RICH it's about NOT becoming POOR and DESTITUTE, that is WHY they call it SAVINGS ---- in HARD CURRENCY!

      the DUCK

    • canu, markets are manipulated. Always have been; it's human nature. The big players want to corner certain markets if they see a chance and want to expolit others when they smell an opportunity. Heck, in the old days I thought about doing so and I am as insignificant a player as they come. The world silver market have had its share of attempts and the theories that the duck preaches here have been common knowledge for years. That doesn't mean there is (or isn't) truth to them. But we know that they have not panned out in the last 30 years. Now they are gathering followers again and have formed a cult-like status. People with clout to influence markets have finally allowed a silver ETF (something the silver-cult members said will never happen) but denied it to other expensive metals! It could go either way, but I put a higher probability on silver settling around $9 than around $30. In that I'm looking years ahead.

    • biasp, by your conjecture, it seems all markets are manipulated. One side says the other manipulates higher. The other lower. Big deal. Gold bugs who spout this evil cabal stuff should be committed.

    • QWAK,bush,Actualy that is NOT true because of the basics involved. They can't sell it that cheep any more because of the cost to mine and refine and the reality that they have been using up silver NEVER to be RECLAMED for many years at a rate TWICE what is mined and refined each year.

      SILVER is totaly ABNORMAL from all other commodities in that way! Another reality is that SILVER mines are located close to the surface of the earth and the deeper they go the less they find unlike GOLD. Most of the easy stuff has been mined out and new SILVER mines are extreamly rare.

      Both GOLD and SILVER prices have been MINIPULATED to artificialy LOW prices but SILVER is much more EXTREAM and will perform even better than GOLD.

      The minipulations are similar but SILVER being an absolute and nessary component in so many products but in minute quantities, the manufactures will BUY no matter how high the price goes. There is a very REAL shortage of SILVER and the reserves from all the old SILVER COINAGE are mostly gone back to the refiners to make up the yearly short fall of NEW SILVER in to the market.

      the DUCK

      the DUCK

    • The PM market could well be manipulated as you say. At the present time on the upside. Silver's real value could be in the $7.50 - $9 range, when the manipulation subsides and the market settles as they always eventually do.

      Just sounding off another possibility.

    • QWAK,J4D,LOL You are a " one FAST GUN!" I was just about to post THAT and read your post first! I guess I was sleeping and You got up earlier than I did! HE HE HE

      Some times it is fun to project what we know and expect to happen BUT timing can be frustrating because it is like trying to dribble a foot ball, IT bounces but don't go exactly as we thought it would, how ever the BOUNCE is a shure thing! :)

      the DUCK

    • Finding a mortgage getting tougher

      09:04 PM CST on Tuesday, March 6, 2007

      By Chau Nguyen / 11 News / KHOU.COM Houston, TX

      There�s a change in the Houston area housing market. You can hardly drive a city block without spotting a home for sale or some new construction, but getting into those homes is now much harder.

      It�s not because of fewer buyers, but instead fewer banks willing to take the risk.

      That could mean the recent housing boom might become a bust for some lenders.

      For all the work it will take for James Tudmon to fix up this house. The hardest job has been helping him buy it.

      �Our clients are not being approved. They're not being approved,� complained Realtor T.J. Jackson.

      In this case Tudmon is a sub-prime borrower, meaning someone with a low credit rating and high debt burdens.

      Jackson said in the past, banks readily approved home loans applications for people in Tudmond�s situation.

      But with the recent rise in foreclosures by sub-prime borrowers the U.S. Department of Treasury reports at least 20 major lenders have stopped offering home loans to borrowers with lower credit ratings.

      Jackson says, that's hurting everyone.

      �We don't know what's to come, everything is based on your credit and I'm not making light of credit. (It) should be good but not everyone can help that,� she said.

      �The 100 percent financing just won�t be a reality for them,� said Matt Frings.

      Frings is in the mortgage lending business. In the last few weeks, he's seen minimum credit scores for sub prime borrowers go from 580 to as high as 640. Meaning, if they don't have at least 640, Frings is being forced to turn down application after application.

      �It hurts everybody for them to be, to be not be able to be financed,� said Frings

      James Tudmon is one of the lucky ones, he got a loan despite his credit score.

      �And I can imagine what people after me (are) going to go through just to get that one to two percent higher financing that they need,� said Tudmon. �I mean it's just going to be difficult.�

    • Gold timers' despair
      Commentary: From contrarian standpoint, that's a bullish indicator
      By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
      Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Mar 7, 2007

      ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) - A not-insignificant proportion of the gold timing newsletters I follow have thrown in the towel on the gold market, moving completely to cash or going short the gold market.
      The gold timers' retreat from the gold market has been so pronounced that contrarians are now ready to entertain the idea that gold bullion could actually mount a sizeable rally.

      Consider the latest readings from the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended exposure to the gold market among a subset of short-term gold timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. As of Tuesday's close, the HGNSI stood at 0%, which means that the average gold timing newsletter now has no exposure to the gold market whatsoever.
      This represents a huge rush to the exits on the part of the gold timing newsletters I monitor. As recently as February 16th, just 11 trading sessions earlier, the HGNSI stood at 75%.
      To put the gold timers' bearish turn in perspective, consider the sentiment situation in the stock market. As I reported in my column Tuesday, the average recommended stock market exposure had dropped by nearly 40 percentage points from Monday, Feb. 26's level of 62.4% to Monday, March 5's level of 22.8%. This quick and sizeable bearish turn was a good sign for the stock market, I concluded.
      On Tuesday, of course, the very next trading session, the stock market rose smartly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 157 points and the Nasdaq Composite Index tacking on more than 44 points.
      Notice carefully that there is even more despair among gold timers Wednesday than there was Monday night among stock market timers. That despair among the gold timers is being so tenaciously held, in fact, that Tuesday's 1.1% rise in the price of gold was unable to persuade any gold timers back into the bullish camp.
      For all these reasons, I grade the current HGNSI as bullish for the gold market.
      Before signing off, let me respond to the many e-mails I've received in recent days about the role contrarian analysis can play in judging a market's trend. I do not think that contrarian analysis tells us much about the primary trend. Instead, it helps us determine where we stand at any given time relative to that trend.
      Insofar as contrarian analysis is helpful, in other words, it is as a short-term market timing tool.
      I mention this to clear up confusion that has arisen whenever I conclude that contrarian analysis is bearish on gold. Inevitably I receive e-mails from investors who object on the grounds that gold's long-term trend is undeniably up.
      But this objection misses the point.
      Even if gold's long-term trend is up, and I happen to think it is, gold will not rise in a straight line along the way. At some points gold will get ahead of itself, relative to that trend, and at other points fall behind. The former points represent good times to lighten up, while the latter points are good times to invest more heavily.
      And contrarian analysis can be a valuable tool in telling us which times are which.
      A week or two ago, contrarian analysis said gold had gotten ahead of itself. It now says that gold is somewhat behind.
      Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

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