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  • canucanoe1 canucanoe1 Dec 31, 2010 12:17 PM Flag

    New, Crazy Phase for Gold, Silver?

    Well, its been a decade for me to be in gold and silver. But this morning - there were signals that the game is a changin'.

    Lenny Dykstra, yes - the former baseball star, was featured in a TV commercial pumping gold and silver bullion. This is the same Dykstra who was wild on real estate and heavy on stock options trading the past decade.

    While we may be early in the speculative blowoff - I do believe Dykstra signals we are entering that phase. Irrespective of what the Duck has said (and we both have been right for a very long time to be in precious metals), gold and silver are but hard assets that have seen a very nice run for a long time. Will it continue for another 10 years - I truly doubt it. 5? maybe. 2? probably - but not without some heart attacks.

    I see severe volatility coming to precious metals. Before prices peak, I suspect there will be a confidence shattering downdraft, just like 3 decades ago (look it up, quite the retracement). Key is to discern when that downdraft will visit before the speculative blowoff occurs.

    Dykstra indicates to me that the downdraft is not far off - some months, maybe a year away. But volatility means its not all up from here...

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    • starting off the new year ......

      sissy Konu told duckie "Lenny Dykstra, yes - the former baseball star, was featured in a TV commercial pumping gold and silver bullion"

      what legitimate company would hire a discraced financial pundit to make any commercial for them?

      methinks sissy Konu has started hitting the bottle a wee bit early upon making that insane comment

      proves once again that sissy Konu may be going over the deep end

      since mad dog alfalfa has quit pouncing on Konu he keeps goading our gold and silver prophet, duckie

      the only "crazy phase" going on is the one sissy Konu has embarked upon

      http://www.cartoonstock.com/newscartoons/cartoonists/rma/lowres/rman5850l.jpg

      • 5 Replies to bohraht
      • QWAK,bohraht,I expect the next 12 to 18 months will totaly ROCK the financial world as the system based on DEBT and GREED crashes BECAUSE debt is well passed the SATURATION POINT globaly and can NOT be PAYED no mater how it is structured or minipulated. :(

        I believe that we will see 10 or more years of POVERTY being the NORM for the vast majority of people who BELIEVED the LIES about DEBT not being DANGEROUS!

        Long term it will be for the GREATER GOOD but for MOST the TRANSITION will be a living HELL they must some how indure and survive any way they can or manage to IMAGIN.

        NEW ways of THINKING and RELATING and a NEW PARADIGN will gradgualy emerge BUT as in all things -- destruction happens quickly and reconstruction only slowly.

        THIS is the begining of a DECADE of CHANGE that can not be stoped or put off any longer and LIKE IT or NOT we will all experience changes we do not even want to IMAGIN because they will be so EXTREAM! :(

        GOOD LUCK to ALL because we are ALL going to need and do with out --- so much that we NOW, just take for granted and ASSUME will always be there -- but IT won't and THAT will change us all at fundamental levels giving new perspectives and values very diferent from the curent ILUSIONS and DELUSIONS that pass for REALITY now. :(

        the DUCK

    • Corrections may come, but I'm holding. Here's why.

      “But suddenly the financial industry is being forced to think long and hard about gold. Surging public debt in many of the world’s largest economies may be about to push the global government-bond market into a period of significant turmoil. If some part of the world’s $30 trillion in sovereign debt could be dumped by the world’s pension funds, insurance companies, banks, and individual investors, then where will that money flow to? Stocks? Real estate? Since pension funds already have high exposure to stocks and other assets like real estate and private equity, it seems reasonable to expect that some fraction of that capital—perhaps as much as $500 billion or more—could eventually flow into a time-tested real asset: gold. Most funds would practically be starting from zero, considering the low percentage of total assets the metal represents today.

      The effect of suddenly moving a substantial amount of investment money into precious metals was best described in a telephone conversation I had with an industry expert: he said it would be like shoving an elephant into a mailbox. At $1,300 an ounce, all the gold in the world—all the jewelry, coins, bars, molars, and church art—is worth an estimated $6.5 trillion. But the vast majority of global gold, like the ring on my finger, is not freely traded. In fact, perhaps only 5 percent of all physical gold actually trades each year, which would make the investment gold market around $320 billion. The mining industry produced around 2,500 metric tons of gold in 2009, worth around $80 billion at the average price for the year. A little over half of every year’s gold production is used for jewelry and industry, so less than $40 billion was available to the global investment community. That’s equivalent to about 20 days of trading in shares of Google—a single stock on the American market.”

      http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&aq=0&oq=gold+as+a+percentage+o&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4GGIK_enUS284US284&q=gold+as+a+percentage+of+financial+assets

    • QWAK,canucanoe,It is in the FUNDAMENTALS of -- WHAT is MONEY that you get CONFUSED -- you and 99.99% of people TOO -- the FIAT CURENCY confligration has just bairly got started so far!

      ALL PAPER PROMISSES will BURN to ASHES -- there is SMOKE every ware and they have put up lots of MIRRORS to help confuse you! :(

      The CRAZE has not started because of a COMERCIAL!

      That is just plane SILLY talk and trying to maintain the STATUS QUO which is obviously CHANGING and will be RETURNING to the LONG TIME STANDARDS of GOLD being MONEY -- FIAT never lasts very long -- too many opertunities to SCAM and create infinite amounts because there is NO limiting factor to GREED! :(

      THIS TIME is just BIGER than ever befor BUT they always FAIL -- every single time in HISTORY!:)

      the DUCK

    • Well, silver sure became volatile - big time volatile.

      I'm of the opinion that we have hit an intermediate end game phase for silver. It's a blowoff top - may end soon, maybe in a month. I'm leaning to it eclipsing its all time high, maybe even a strong move towards $60.

      Then maybe there's an intermediate top for quite some time. We have an election coming - and the die is cast. Politicians are going to have to promise austerity and feign the attempts for the walk to match the talk. That could be 6 months, but maybe 1-2 years.

      How will this affect gold and silver pricing? In the beginning, I'd say its detrimental. But when the lipstick is removed from the pigs... well, that's why I said intermediate top.

      • 1 Reply to canucanoe1
      • QWAK,Canucanoe,Nothing goes straight up with out pull backs for profit taking BUT $60.00 and $100.00 SILVER are baked in the cake :) as long as the FED can create more new DEBT DOLLARS out of thin air! :(

        It is not the SILVER or GOLD that changes in VALUE, it is the IMAGINARY DOLLARS that become worth less and less --- that is especialy true for STOCKS and BONDS and ALL paper investments which are several steps removed from the action of creating new FIAT! :(

        It aint ROCKET SCIENCE -- actualy quite SIMPLE realy -- when one understands that FIAT DOLLARS aint MONEY, but rather a SUBSTITUTE for REAL MONEY! :)

        the DUCK

    • Duck, you speak nonsense.

      Money is not "work and effort". It is the excess value of that work.

      If you were manually making buggy whips, should it be valued the same as if you were designing the first transistor?

      As time marches on, values change. Big deal - only for those that can't accept change.

      Duck, you want it both ways. You want to use the internet and your pickup truck, but you don't want change in value delivered. that's nonsense.

      btw, you again confuse banking concepts with wealth and money. You can have bad and good bankers with any monetary system.

    • QWAK, canucanoe, "But my $40 book is now worth 10-20x what I paid for it." --- good luck finding some one whe will ACTUALY pay you THAT for it! LOL

      In any event it is the KNOLAGE not the BOOK that is of the GREAT VALUE and it is worth NOTHING if NOT properly put in to action.

      the DUCK

    • QWAK,canucanoe,Can you explain how the GOV. and the FED BANKERS can create TRILLIONS of new DEBT dollars and not have HIPERINFLATION happen! ????

      FIAT aint realy MONEY but GOLD is :) and both GOLD and SILVER have been MINIPULATED and heald ARTIFICIALY low -- the TRUTH is becoming OBVIOUS -- it is just that SIMPLE realy!

      http://static.seekingalpha.com/adsframe.html

      BUY the REAL STUFF and --- TAKE DELIVERY!!

      You will be a HAPPY CAMPER! :)

      the DUCK

    • paulohl,

      France decided to accumulate huge gold monetary reserve assets and rig their currency exchange value (the 2 go hand in hand). This deprived the rest of Europe of free trade just like Asia does today (its not just China, but Japan, S Korea, Taiwan too).

      France thought they were so smart. In reality, their productivity sucked and was hidden by the Governmental interference in currency value.

      The UK and German economies were hurt for the longest times. Then the UK devalued and disengaged. The UK went through a brief, debilitating period and then rode out the rest of the Depression better than all, including the US. Germany - well, between the Versailles wealth confiscation and the monetary system manipulation, they never really recovered stability.

      France prolonged their euphoric economic "miracle" and then broke to the downside hard.

      A gold standard doesn't work if countries want to game the system. Neither will a fiat system. No system will - after all, nations have to follow the rules for any system to work. And when a nation finds it in their own interest to be a parasite on other nations, troubles brew depending on the length and impact of that parasitic relationship.

      The Duck's embracement of "gold" as a hard money monetary reserve doesn't overcome parasites and irresponsible stewardship. For Americans, we have both in play today.

    • QWAK,canucanoe,You fail to grasp or comprehend the most basic concept of what "MONEY" truely IS and REPRESENTS and that is why -- you just DON'T GET IT!:(

      MONEY --IS and represents -- the WORK and EFORT of another PERSON -- just like YOUR SELF some ware -- doing what they can do to EARN enough to LIVE and SURVIVE! :)

      Like most people today YOU have learned to count DOLLARS and believe them to be just a quantity of digits added together in some detached CIBER world! :(

      GOLD is REAL -- SILVER is REAL -- DIGITS on a computer or printed on paper are JUST -- PROMISES to PAY -- DEBT notes -- IOUs -- for SOME DAY -- IF people PAY and don't DEFAULT or can not posably pay -- because DEBT is greater than FUTURE pay can ever REPAY! :(

      The BANKERS tricked virtualy every one in to believing that THEY could create "MONEY" from "DEBT" a form of SLAVERY!! :(

      The BANKERS are LEVERAGED to INFINITY in GOLD and SILVER because they believed they could FOOL EVERY ONE ALL of the TIME and NEVER have to PAY any one in REAL MONEY -- just the DIGITS they create with out EFFORT or CARE for the ones who GROW and MINE and BUILD and PRODUCE every thing! :( :( :(

      the DUCK

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