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Aware, Inc. Message Board

  • elitecrete1 elitecrete1 Sep 18, 2007 12:38 PM Flag

    My new Aware investment thesis

    MT is doing a 2007 guidance "Rope a dope". I just hope I'm not the dope.

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    • >>26 would be a disaster IMO but he left it a possibility in todays presentation.<<

      Without a PR preannouncing Q3 he did not have any choice in repeating the 26-30. You can bet he knows within a few hundred thousand what Q3 will come in at, but it would be a violation of SEC Reg FD to disclose anything new today to a limited conference audience. Coming in at 26 wouldn't be much of a stock booster, but I don't think it would be a disaster. Anything less and we see more downside.

      Did you change your mind about doing a little bottom feeding today? I have seen no spouting on the bid. We may hit 2000 shares with a little luck.

    • We have seen a few quarterly disasters with Aware. The last two Q's come to mind, Yikes. 7 Million per Qtr or better would not be a disaster. If they achieve 8 or better, I think we will trade north of 7 or 8$ per share.

    • He delivered a pretty standard pitch. The reference to 20% Biometric growth was a 1H06 to 1H07 comparison of the pie charts early in the presentation. He did not make much of a comment about what to expect going forward from Biometrics. He did say most of the growth in Product sales came from DSL T&D equipment. This will morph to more T&D software with higher margins going forward (some good news).

      Based on guidance we know we expect 14-18 million in Revs from 2H07 - which is 7 to 9 MM$ per Qtr. Relatively speaking, this is pretty strong performance if it plays out.

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