So based upon that same logic, why couldn't we also assume that shares might just as likely retest their $34.99 high? Seriously, when you dismissed earnings as being an important factor in dictating a stocks price, you lost me. Hype only takes you so far - ask Krispy Kreme. The long term movers are companies that make money. DWA has come a long way since 2004. They had their best year ever last year, and are poised to have an even better one with two strong potential hits this year. They also have a bunch of cash and no debt. Fund managers are trying to get out of their risky fortune 500 financial stocks. They are looking to hedge against the market downturn. DWA would be a great hedge stock, along with Utilities and gold. Compared to DIS, DWA is an even better bet, since DWA doesn'T have to worry about finding people to pay $400 per night at the Polynesian Hotel at the Magic Kingdom, and another $130 per day for a day pass. DWA is simply offering a product for $9 that you can go see with your kids for a relatively cheap evening of entertainment. Then there are the DVD sales which are very high margin.... Think about it.
Please understand I am certainly not dismissing earnings. What I am dismissing is people who constantly come back to PE or some other metric to justify a short term move and then get frustrated when the price does something seemingly illogical. My point being in a real time "snapshot" price can react to the broader market, a large holder selling for it's own reasons, or a host of other factors that have nothing to do with earnings. As far as the retest, I find it hard to believe that DWA would reverse a major downtrend with it's current technical picture.
Gap consideration is part of the technical analysis. Contrary to common belief, not all gaps get filled. Certainly not right away. Breakaway gap to the downside is very bearish. Don't you know nuthin' man.