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DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. Message Board

  • rickoherron rickoherron Sep 4, 2012 1:43 PM Flag

    I've given up trying to make sense of this stock

    Madagascar 3 is a huge smash, exceeding $600M globally, with more markets to open (UK and Germany in October) that could push that total to 650 or higher. Yet, the stock doesn't move at all. Lots of reasons to load up with the recent moves in China, a deep bench of fresh film projects queued up, and a steadily increasing library. There is definitely value in this company, but it's not reflected in the stock price. I may nibble a bit more at these prices, but otherwise I am holding. Pixar was eventually bought out for 6.5B, while DWA has twice as many movies in its library. It's frustrating but in the case of this company, it's the tortoise running against the hare.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • xtgeminiman@ymail.com xtgeminiman Oct 4, 2012 4:10 PM Flag

      Interesting analysis on this topic. I trade technicals. DWA has traded in a horizontal channel for over a year now. ~17 to ~20. 18.5 is a zone it likes to pause at too.

      M3 might've done well but the fundamentals are kind of ugly. EPS is way down and forward P/E is high (I don't trade a lot of media but I know that these numbers are volatile for obvious reasons).

      We shall see...

      • 1 Reply to xtgeminiman
      • That $17 to $20 range you identified - that is a 17% swing. How many times... 5 in the last year? Grab one! As for the future - it won't take too long. Guardians is tracking extremely well, has already won an award and is a shoe-in for the Oscars. That would add some serious legs. We have enormous short interest. When moviegoers realizes that Guardians is a monster the squeeze will be incredible. I placed my bet that we get out of that 17-20 range and hit around $25 by Xmas, 30s in a year.

    • bounds@ymail.com bounds Sep 5, 2012 3:55 PM Flag

      Their not making much money on Madagascar 3, Paramount kind of screwed them by spending $30 million more on ads...listen to last q conference call. The movie needs to gross $60 mill more to cover...$150 million more in foreign markets. They were allowed to do it per their distribution agreement and performance of the movie. But they should make it back at some point with extra DVD/TV sales. Great company, no doubt about that. Disney way over pays for everything, so thats not a fare price.

      Animated sequels are usually stronger in foriegn markets than the US, originals do better in US, typically...compare Brave and M3 in the US. Plus who knows how Rise OG will do, super risky, Santa with tattoos?? We will see. Great company, probably better stock next year than this year, a tortoise def. But Disney movies, other than the big franchises never make money, they put them out to support their cable-tv, studio, overhead. Remember Mars Needs Moms lol

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 3 Replies to bounds
      • Mad 3 is marching toward $700m global. That puts it as #2 of all time for DWA. Paramount didn't screw them - the movie was big/epic, the budget got blown out, and DWA (not Paramount) wanted a big campaign to capitalize. That strategy worked! The next CC they will talk about those worldwide numbers that DIDN'T EXIST during the last CC. I'm betting the next numbers look fabulous. With the success of Mad 3 you can absolutely count on big box office for the Penguins spin off, Mad 4 etc. They did the right thing spending money.

      • Agreed, Paramount knew they were shopping, so they maxed it. Let's see how Fox does.
        With 3 originals coming out 2013 and the new Classic library additions with new hires to
        write them, looks good next year.
        The China involvements are questions. They've spread themselves out thinner, but that's what
        it takes to grow and expand. Dis has Pixar's back, Dream's more on their own, JV.
        Patience grasshopper. These things take time.

        Sentiment: Hold

      • M3 is 602.8M now given UK and Germany not participate yet. M3 is a great product and Paramount just squeeze last several blood drops from DWA. I don't expect Paramount will show some mercy to rise of guardians this Nov, but expect 2013 with 3 movies distributed and netflix deal.

22.49-0.28(-1.23%)Sep 23 4:15 PMEDT

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