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DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. Message Board

  • johnandtai johnandtai Nov 27, 2012 10:41 AM Flag

    Guardians is in a bad category.

    Let's face it....... DWA spent too much making a Christmas / Holiday flick. Holiday ( Santa ) flicks don't get huge numbers. These characters are U.S. / Euro holiday figures. Not important to International markets.

    I smell a write down coming for ROTG. $17 will likely not hold..... $16 here we come.

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    • Definitely in a wrong revenue category. This points to really bad marketing.
      I know an 18-year-old girl who really loves this movie - watched it 3 times already.
      Yet the sales were low.
      I think it could be that the movie ended up attracting too narrow of a segment of the market.
      The creators seem to target both old and young, but in the end turned off most of the
      young and old. It is like trying to sell Gap clothes along with designer clothes
      at a Nordstroms. You'll end up losing both high-end and low-end customers.

      Young kids won't like it because the Santa is not the fat and jolly Santa...
      since when does Santa look like a scary gangster who wears tatoos?
      Also that bunny looks mean and scary to young kids.

      Old kids won't like it because it is too unrealistic... too fantasy.

      So the story appeals to rebellious teenagers... a smaller market
      But not all rebellious teenagers will want to get caught watching a "kid's" movie.
      The tough teenagers would rather watch a James Bond movie... an even smaller market...
      hence the low revenues.

      I got suckered into watching this movie by that 18 year-old girl. I left the movie house
      wishing there was some catchy song that I can take away from it. Strangely
      I found the most catchy song was played at the end along with the showing of the credits.
      The technical detail of the animation / drawing / 3D was very good...
      The story line, the appearance ( e.g., tattoo ), and musical support, need major improvements
      to target the high-revenue markets.

    • I think that this movie will find some legs over the next 5 weeks. This may not be a blockbuster but will make money and not be a write-off.
      People I talked with are planning to see this movie in the coming weeks because most viewed it as a holiday type movie and went to see Twilight and Skyfall over the holiday weekend. This movie was aimed at families with children, so I am not sure why so many are surprised that on Wed and Thanksgiving the numbers were low. Most parents were busy and didn't have time to take their young children to the movies.

      May move lower and go under $17 but a great opporunity to pick up some shares for the long term.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to andrew.sam21
      • I think Dreamworks is underestimating the impact of blockbuster movies for adults opening at the same time as kids movies. They made this mistake in the past with Kung #$%$ Panda 2 opening opposite Hangover 2. In every family I know with young kids, the mom went to see Twilight and/or one or both parents went to Skyfall. Few families have the time (or the money) to take the kids to another movie that week even with the long holiday weekend. Obviously this is just anecdote but the numbers seem to confirm it.

        I'm still hopeful Guardians has legs but so far a huge disappointment.

    • How much is too much? Cars 2 @ 200M!
      The CC estimated 150-175 on Guardians, but it came in at 145M. mojo.
      And Paramount called the open numbers right.

 
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