I agree that Q4 may have a write down and now might not be the time to buy DWA. A write down could move DWA P/E to 25+. We could drop another dollar or two. However I don't place the blame totally on management. The movie industry is not a consistent type of business.
Pixar was unique in that it had winners most all of the time. But most companies have hits and misses. Dreamworks is a pure play movie stock. If they have a big hit the stock goes up, if they have a bomb ( ROTG ) they go down. With Turbo and The Croods being original and not sequels investors are worried. Sequels are usually for-sure hits but new original stories are more iffy.
2013 has no sequals..........
My worry is DWA will take the Classic Media content and make movies from the old cartoons. This I think would be a costly mistake. This content is out there all the time on cable and is not a good source for new movies. An example would be if a studio made a new Snoopy or Mickey Mouse movie.......kids see it every day on TV and would not be overly excited to go to the theater to see it IMO.
Good point about sequels vs. originals, Peabody & Sherman will tell that tail one way
or the other as it was a cartoon- Aesop's Fairytales. As for them caring about the
stock price, they know it's volatile, they're working on the company, not the stock.
If they're successful, the price should reflect it, eventually.