I agree, there is going to be almost no revenue for the rest of the year. The Croods and Turbo will probably sell well on DVD during the upcoming holidays, but that will probably only generate $100 million in revenue. That revenue will probably be realized over Q4 2013 and Q1 2014. Again, they will face competition from Monsters U, Despicable Me 2, etc.
And then there is the counter argument for Awesomeness TV and Dream Classics or whatever they are called. Are they generating around $25-35 million a quarter?
This stock should easily close the gap back to $24.76 when it opens for trading on Wednesday, unless the CEO makes some idiotic comment like "Turbo WILL be profitable." Talk is clearly cheap.
I bet he wishes he could hop in the WABAC machine and retract that statement! I hope the analysts grill him for misleading investors.
Not sure why the stock is holding up this well...although there is very little volume.
I still like the long term prospects for the Company starting in June of 2014, but at these multiples the stock seems a little rich.
I agree with your 100mil. from DVD and I would almost tend to go up a few more ~110mil. As for the awesomeness tv, etc. here is a snipit from 2012's 4th qtr ER:
"Library, which now includes Megamind, contributed approximately $63.4 million of revenue to the quarter. Other items, including holiday television specials and live theatrical properties, contributed approximately $53.1 million of revenue to the quarter. Classic Media contributed approximately $31.6 million of revenue to the quarter"
So, now that their library has grown a bit, I'd expect that number to stay the same and/or go north a bit.
As for Wednesday, I also see the stock dipping to the lower to mid 20's, in which I would be a buyer. I actually sold my position just above 28 a while back (peronsal reasons) and am waiting until after the release to get back in.