Anyone who wants a big position here would presumably be best served by waiting for the secondary, where could buy direct or prob. at lower share price, or am I missing something? I don't see a near term press release opportunity.
I suppose the next PR will be to announce the secondary, and perhaps they will complete through in a 144a although I really am amazed they can find buyers at this point. I am thinking the secondary terms will probably be convertible debt secured by a second lien on land with a conversion price of $10. Or possibly unsecured convertible debt with conversion price around $7. Very hard for me to believe they can issue straight equity at this point.
I seriously doubt that the existing debt holders with their $ 55 million, that they would be willing to share the spot light of being secured debt. Most likely, there will be an unsecured convertible, essentially a 2nd mortgage but the next lenders will most likely want a lower conversion price - more likely around $ 5 or less, IMHO.
I do agree with you, I don't see them issuing any more equity per se. But there was that very strange 148,000 share trade right at 03:59 PM on Friday Sept 21, 2012 for $ 10.01. I'd be curious to see if Slater and gang took advantage of the upturn in the pps during that week to raise a quick $ 1.5 million.
Regardless, we should see soon enough - apparently AFTER the annual shareholder meeting which is scheduled for Nov 5, 2012. It will be interesting to see if their cash balance has mysteriously gone up.
I guess to this point, has anyone looked at the existing debt indentures? Are they allowed to secure new debt pari passu or does new debt have to take a junior position? I will try to take a look at this later.