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Turkcell Iletisim (TKC) Message Board

  • johnpalley38 johnpalley38 Jul 28, 2011 12:37 PM Flag

    what do you guys think about the earnings?

    what are your thoughts fellas. i just got in the other day at 12.58

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    • thats right dollar, keep plummeting lol. lookin good fellas

    • Earnings were basically no news. The reported loss was due to the Belarus unit's currency devaluation loss (which was announced back in March) and the sizeable fine imposed on Turkcell by the Turkish Competition Board (which was known for a couple of months as well).

      What has been driving the share price of TKC are two things:

      1) the ongoing board dispute between three big shareholders which caused to the dividend to be suspended since the board. The Swedish and Russian shareholders are trying to remove the board chairman claiming that he is pro Turkish founding owners (the Cukurova Group). In the last board meeting back in April, the dispute resulted in the Russians and the Swedish block the approval of 2010 Financial Figures and the distribution of the dividend. There will be an emergency meeting scheduled for August 2011.

      2) By buying TKC, you are not only buying Turkcell shares, you are also betting on Turkish lira to appreciate against the USD. This is because 1 share of TKC is 2.5 shares of the Turkcell shares traded in the Istanvul Stock Exchange. That is, the price of TKC is equal to 2.4 times Turkcell price in Istanbul (which closed today at 8.70 Turkish lira) divided by the exchange rate (which closed today at 1 USD=1.675 Turkish Lira). What caused the latest plunge in TKC share price since July 1st was due to the Turkish lira plunging against the USD. To give you an idea, 1 USD was 1.6065 Turkish Lira on July 1st, whereas it saw 1USD=1.73 on July 25th, almost an 8% plunge. Therefore, if you are long TKC, keep in mind that you are exposed to currency risk of Turkish Lira against the USD, and I must say July was a terrible month in that sense. Keep an eye on the Turkish Lira versus USD chart here http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TRY=X+Interactive#symbol=TRY=X;range=3m.

      You will see that most of the plunge in TKC was due to the depreciation of Turkish Lira against the USD since late April. The Turkish Central Bank is ultra dovish, they keep the interest rates at record low, despite record growth, and this caused a lot of nervousness especially last week and resulted in a free fall.

      I hope this helps...

 
TKC
13.74Sep 18 4:00 PMEDT

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