Your principle dropping like a rock and your jumping for joy-took profit in low 20`s might get back a little lower-gas at all lows and going lower along with warmer temps.Your prob.right about the div.it will stay.
Like some here, I 've been trading in and out of FGP for years. I buy about 4 weeks before the ex/d date and trade out on the run up as the ex/d date approaches.
But I have not taken any new positions, as yet, because FGP has broken below its Aug 11th low of $17.94. Last Aug, the selloff volume reached between 600,000 - 800,000 shares per day (about 3-4 times average daily volume) before bottoming out. To date, and since mid December the selloff volume has been , on average about 400,000 shares per day or about 2 x average daily volume. For me, I want to see a selling climax reaching as high as 1 million shares per day, which has happened before. Going back 5 years the lows of near $12 was reached due to the bankruptcies of Lehman and other banking crisises.
So, ,I view a price break below $17 as a major concern which might portend a 10-20% reduction in the quarterly payout to bring the yield back down under 10%. As a rule it is always preferable to buy when a stock is in an uptrend then to try and fish for a bottom. I'll leave the bottom 10% for the speculators.